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Market, Energy, and Inflation posture (Not Political).

Discussion in 'Stocks, Investments & Finances' started by Tierhog, Jan 19, 2021.

  1. Jan 21, 2021 at 10:28 AM
    #61
    Bakershack

    Bakershack Critical of Noncritical Thinkers

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    I have some gold and silver coins, but I have more invested in a gold crypto called PAXG. Every PAXG is backed by one ounce of gold, and you can choose to take delivery if you want. This is much easier, more secure, and MUCH easier to transport if you travel. And yes, it is insured as well.
     
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  2. Jan 21, 2021 at 10:33 AM
    #62
    Terndrerrr

    Terndrerrr guzzling dealer repellent

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    I passed the SIE last June. Current job went absolute bonkers so I stopped studying for the Series 7 Top Off. I’m back in the game now. Just gotta review incredible amounts of info. SIE is pretty easy to be honest. Which software are you using to study? My buddy’s firm paid for Kaplan for me. The QBank (their quiz database) is worth it alone.
     
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  3. Jan 21, 2021 at 10:35 AM
    #63
    P-Factor

    P-Factor New Member

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    Why yard sales are important
    Sometime this year, we taxpayers will again receive another ‘Economic Stimulus’ payment.

    This is indeed a very exciting program, and I’ll explain it by using a Q & A format:

    Q; What is an ‘Economic Stimulus’ payment?
    A: It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.

    Q: Where will the government get this money?
    A: From taxpayers.

    Q: So the government is giving me back my own money?
    A: Only a smidgen of it.

    Q: What is the purpose of this payment?
    A: The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a ; high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.

    Q: But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?
    A: Shut up.

    Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the U.S. Economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:

    * If you spend the stimulus money at Wal-Mart, the money will go to China or Sri Lanka .

    * If you spend it on gasoline, your money will go to the Arabs.

    * If you purchase a computer, it will go to India , Taiwan or ; China …

    * If you purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico , Honduras and Guatemala …

    * If you buy an efficient car, it will go to Japan or Korea .

    * If you purchase useless stuff, it will go to Taiwan .

    * If you pay your credit cards off, or buy stock, it will go ; to management bonuses and they will hide it offshore.

    Instead, keep the money in America by:

    1) Spending it at yard sales, or

    2) Going to ball games, or

    3) Spending it on prostitutes, or

    4) Beer or

    5) Tattoos.

    (These are the only American businesses still operating in the U.S. )

    Conclusion:

    Go to a ball game with a tattooed prostitute that you met at a yard ; sale and drink beer all day !

    No need to thank me, I’m just glad I could be of help.
     
  4. Jan 21, 2021 at 10:43 AM
    #64
    Cjames17

    Cjames17 You gotta wanna

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    Interesting. Thank you for your insight. I'll have to research this avenue.
     
  5. Jan 21, 2021 at 10:46 AM
    #65
    Cjames17

    Cjames17 You gotta wanna

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    Understand completely. I really only use my "play around" money on these purchases. I would normally be buying guns or ammunition but that ship has sailed some time ago (unless I stumble across a screaming deal.) I am definitely going to do some more research on buying metals in the market...but there is something about being able to touch and feel my investment lol.
     
  6. Jan 21, 2021 at 10:54 AM
    #66
    Cpl_Punishment

    Cpl_Punishment Young men never die.

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    My advisor told me a story about one of his other clients (in general, he didn't share names or anything confidential) who decided a couple years before he wanted to retire that gold was on its way up so he should sell everything else and buy a bunch of it. My advisor was able to talk him down to buying a bit of gold and keeping the rest of his retirement fund intact.
     
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  7. Jan 21, 2021 at 11:06 AM
    #67
    Kimosabe

    Kimosabe Slacker

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    Even better than just buying the metal itself is a mutual fund or ETF that only deals in those metals. *I like copper. It gets used in lots of electric motors. **Not to say now is the right time or not to get into it.**
     
  8. Jan 21, 2021 at 12:44 PM
    #68
    ckkone

    ckkone New Member

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    Holding steady, not worried at all.
     
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  9. Jan 21, 2021 at 3:26 PM
    #69
    jaymannj

    jaymannj New Member

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    Chase uses the adbanker.... honestly might sign up for the Kaplan just for their practice tests... although the vendor and chase said not to....
     
  10. Jan 21, 2021 at 7:34 PM
    #70
    Hbjeff

    Hbjeff New Member

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    I kinda wonder if this insane demand for fullsize trucks continues when fuel prices double in the next few months
     
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  11. Jan 22, 2021 at 11:08 AM
    #71
    Ckatz53

    Ckatz53 Newish

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    www.fouroneodetailing.com
    19% return on option calls I swung since Monday on SPCE and just cashed out after hitting a peak from last March. SPCE gonna help pay for my new supercharger. :burnrubber:
     
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  12. Jan 22, 2021 at 11:30 AM
    #72
    Kimosabe

    Kimosabe Slacker

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    My guess is you might see a slight decrease, but overall I doubt demand will drop much. Here is some of my thinking.
    - Full-size trucks get pretty good gas mileage now (new ones at least).
    - People that use full-size trucks (ranches, construction, towing, etc) aren't going to have a good alternative for a little while.
    - The cost to replace a truck you already own vs the cost of a new truck or new vehicle with better mileage is probably a wash or a loss.
    - Some people (not all and please don't flame me I'm stating a generalization that I know we've all seen) are a little insecure or too macho to ever consider driving an electric truck. Despite them being a better fit for some of those roles like ranching or construction where they don't have to drive too far at one time; and will prefer the "manly" big gas guzzler.
    - Personally, I have an older truck but where I live my wife and I need (see how I justify need) a reliable, capable, off-road hauler and my commute to and from work is less than 2 miles pre-pandemic and nothing now and we have her SUV for road trips and our camper van for vacation/road trips. So even if I upgrade to a newer truck, Toyota only, the Tacoma isn't going to cut it.
    ** Just my thinking based on the last time there were high gas prices, inflation, and housing crisis (roughly 2008)
     
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  13. Jan 22, 2021 at 11:54 AM
    #73
    Bakershack

    Bakershack Critical of Noncritical Thinkers

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    I generally agree with your statements. But when I was shopping and heard about the Tesla truck, I was seriously considering it until it was revealed. Way too ugly and the vast majority of aftermarket accessories would likely not work with it due to its strange shape.
     
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  14. Jan 22, 2021 at 12:00 PM
    #74
    TrashcanBand

    TrashcanBand New Member

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    I hate that the Badger never gained traction. That thing looked poised to storm the scene.
     
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  15. Jan 22, 2021 at 12:00 PM
    #75
    Kimosabe

    Kimosabe Slacker

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    Like I said, no good alternatives. Haha.
    I couldn't do the Tesla truck. The Rivian on the other hand looks much better in my opinion, but the price, limitations, and time on market is turning me away and I'm sure quite a few others.
     
  16. Jan 24, 2021 at 7:58 AM
    #76
    Tierhog

    Tierhog [OP] SIG-AHOLIC

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    Glad you brought it up. When California regular unleaded hit 5$ a gallon, a new suburban or basically any full size suv average price dropped significantly. As energy prices have already started to increase (we called that didn't we), the claim is that it's due to the recovery. Naw...sorry. The reality is that green "issues" are putting upward pressure on fuel, up to and including heating oils. Green alternatives are currently to expensive or underdeveloped (hello..Tesla cybertruck). So Yes, it will definitely curb demand to some extent. Toyota truck people buy for reliability though, so don't expect them to turn to an ecoboost.
     
  17. Jan 24, 2021 at 10:50 AM
    #77
    TrashcanBand

    TrashcanBand New Member

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    Whenever I get on with Tesla, I forward the employee discount code to yall. :rofl:
     
  18. Jan 24, 2021 at 11:11 AM
    #78
    Bakershack

    Bakershack Critical of Noncritical Thinkers

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    Cool! My wife thinks she wants a Tesla when it's time to replace her Highlander. She only has about 220k miles on the Highlander so it will be awhile! However, she does drive ~25-30k miles/yr.
     
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  19. Jan 24, 2021 at 11:23 AM
    #79
    Cpl_Punishment

    Cpl_Punishment Young men never die.

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    Does Tesla make an equivalent vehicle? (3 row crossover)
     
  20. Jan 24, 2021 at 12:59 PM
    #80
    Bakershack

    Bakershack Critical of Noncritical Thinkers

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    We're empty nesters now, and our college-aged kids have their own vehicles, AND I have the Tundra, so no need for another family sized vehicle for her.
     
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  21. Jan 24, 2021 at 1:18 PM
    #81
    FirstGenVol

    FirstGenVol Brake Czar

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    I read the first page. There was much doom and gloom without any explanation why. I'm not saying they are wrong, but I'm unclear where this is coming from. I suspect people are trying to skirt around the issue without mentioning it.

    I'm going to continue doing what I have been. We max out our Roth IRA's, put a big chunk in our 401k's, and save some cash too.

    What I'm most concerned about right now is the rate at which real estate is going up.

    Where I live, houses that sold for $350k in 2018 are $500k now.
     
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  22. Jan 24, 2021 at 1:57 PM
    #82
    Hbjeff

    Hbjeff New Member

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    Im guilty of doom/gloom think. It happens, however to be very skeptical of the economic future is warranted.

    a few things that were unknowns are now knowns:
    1. Canceling domestic oil growth will negatively impact employment
    2. Banks cannot tolerate forbearance forever. If they cannot forclose for another year, something will have to give
     
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  23. Jan 24, 2021 at 4:40 PM
    #83
    Kimosabe

    Kimosabe Slacker

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    I can comment a little on your second point because I work in the industry. Banks are artificially inflating interest rates to cover costs and slow down their lending. Partly due to underwriting being swamped by refinances and to prevent further losses. Not all banks are doing this, and some are making up for it in different ways; not specifically just on home loans. They are also tightening their lending criteria to super safe loans with plenty of wiggle room on the collateral. That way they are minimizing their risks and factoring in heightened appraised value on collateral in case they do have to sell it off to settle the debt.
     
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  24. Jan 24, 2021 at 5:31 PM
    #84
    Hbjeff

    Hbjeff New Member

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    I appreciate your input. Two follow up questions.

    1. they may be artificially driving up int rates, but even with that, rates are still historically low. The fed has kept rates too low since 9/11 though in my opinion. Cheap money is artificial pumping up of demand in the end.

    2. I do not understand how banks are considering anything to be “safe collateral” or leaving wiggle room if they are prevented by a govt from foreclosing in the property?
     
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  25. Jan 24, 2021 at 5:41 PM
    #85
    Bakershack

    Bakershack Critical of Noncritical Thinkers

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    This is good to know. We're looking for land to build on so any insight into the industry will help.
     
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  26. Jan 25, 2021 at 8:13 AM
    #86
    Kimosabe

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  27. Jan 25, 2021 at 8:27 AM
    #87
    Tierhog

    Tierhog [OP] SIG-AHOLIC

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    I'll address the doom position, of which as the OP didn't declare, but have seen in some comments. I was looking for a hedge without crypto or metals. I did offer a few options but was hoping for differences in opinion.
    I don't chase stocks. Learned that lesson. I am sitting on alot of cash due to a prolonged shutdown. The solutions thus far have enabled a gradual but limited recovery. I think if people buffalo through as normal they will likely run negative, hence the thread. The market is adapting. Fuel is under upward pressure, inflation WILL rise and in some circles already has, and threats of federal minimum wage hikes scares the hell out of small business. It's relevant as this site revolves around gas guzzling dinosaur trucks built in the US. Recently someone posted a Tundra34 video shocked at the sticker. Yep. Doom? NAh...Is it going to get stormy? Bet your ass. Lol. Forbearance is huge and a debt bubble. Remember ARM mortgages? They are back! Lol. Like people didn't learn the last time. All this is relevant. Doom? IDK.. I'd say historically threatening. ☺️

    One more thing... Go to Costco and fill up your tank and cart...look at receipts.. A barometer of the market? No...but you can't help but feel it's squeeze.
     
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  28. Jan 25, 2021 at 8:42 AM
    #88
    Kimosabe

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    #1 Is there a question in this? Yes, rates are still very low regardless of them being slightly inflated. The fed started bumping up rates a little bit a few years ago. Then covid and the market drop happened and then they bottomed out to the current state.

    #2 They are prevented from foreclosing right now, but there has been uncertainty on how long that will last. People can also apply for forbearance or deferment on their mortgage loans because of COVID. However; they are only band-aids but can help some people who have had their business or income decrease because of the current environment but won't help everyone.
    So, collateral for loans are given a loan-to-value, how much is the loan relative to value of the collateral ($1million house with $250,000 left on mortgage is LTV of 25%). By "safe collateral" I'm referring to property that is more stable such as homes and lots versus cars, RVs, or even commercial real estate. We are seeing influx in housing prices, but generally value isn't going to drop that much. Banks are being more conservative by approving the loan for $4million with LTV of 60% or less where the buyer has plenty of stable income and turning down the loan for $500k with LTV of 90% where the buyer's income had a 30% decrease due to COVID. These are two overly simplified examples and there are always exceptions.

    I can list examples where the loans were denied and the explanation given was complete BS. Some of the time I was able to get them overturned and approved, but some were just flat out "no."
     
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  29. Jan 25, 2021 at 8:47 AM
    #89
    Tierhog

    Tierhog [OP] SIG-AHOLIC

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    This info is what I was seeking. It's a narrow chunk of the market, but those of you that live it everyday have insight to offer to the outsider. Thanks.

    Can't wait to revisit this thread in a couple months.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2021
  30. Jan 25, 2021 at 11:03 AM
    #90
    Bakershack

    Bakershack Critical of Noncritical Thinkers

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