1. Welcome to Tundras.com!

    You are currently viewing as a guest! To get full-access, you need to register for a FREE account.

    As a registered member, you’ll be able to:
    • Participate in all Tundra discussion topics
    • Transfer over your build thread from a different forum to this one
    • Communicate privately with other Tundra owners from around the world
    • Post your own photos in our Members Gallery
    • Access all special features of the site

2023 Car Market?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by Henry2019, Jun 28, 2022.

  1. Jun 28, 2022 at 9:33 PM
    #1
    Henry2019

    Henry2019 [OP] N/A

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2019
    Member:
    #36303
    Messages:
    576
    Gender:
    Male
    Houston, Texas
    Vehicle:
    2019 SR5 CM CEMENT GREY
    3/1 Lift Kit 20X9 Fuel Assaults +1 295/60/R20 Falken Wildpeak A/T3W
    According to a lot of folks the United States is expecting a recession sometime in the 2023 calendar year. So that leads me to wonder.. which direction shall the car market head by then?
     
  2. Jun 28, 2022 at 9:37 PM
    #2
    SWB

    SWB New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2022
    Member:
    #79499
    Messages:
    48
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    T
    Cenral Arkansas
    Same thing as now. Made to order or take what they got coming in. But you got pay premium price for it. If you don't someone else will.
     
    GODZILLA likes this.
  3. Jun 28, 2022 at 9:45 PM
    #3
    Coal Dragger

    Coal Dragger New Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2021
    Member:
    #63259
    Messages:
    2,922
    Gender:
    Male
    Vehicle:
    2007 White Double Cab Limited 5.7L 4X4
    I wanted a faster vehicle so I also bought a Chevy SS... because 4 door sedans with big V8’s are hilarious.
    Inventory will catch back up with demand as consumers stop spending and people get laid off.

    Auto manufacturers will most likely be behind on this and changes to manufacturing volume will trail economic conditions at the dealers. Plus a lot of dealerships as part of their franchise agreements don’t have the option of refusing to take product. So the manufacturers will push cars out to the dealers whether dealers want them or not. If you think large auto makers aren’t going to deliver all those cars and trucks awaiting chips once they get chips just because the dealers don’t have as many buyers you would be wrong.

    As an aside we’ve already had one quarter of negative growth, and it only takes two consecutive quarters to constitute a recession. So chances are we’re in one currently.

    A lot of dealers that have gotten used to pandemic style consumer panic buying are going to be in for a rude shock.
     
  4. Jun 28, 2022 at 10:05 PM
    #4
    Henry2019

    Henry2019 [OP] N/A

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2019
    Member:
    #36303
    Messages:
    576
    Gender:
    Male
    Houston, Texas
    Vehicle:
    2019 SR5 CM CEMENT GREY
    3/1 Lift Kit 20X9 Fuel Assaults +1 295/60/R20 Falken Wildpeak A/T3W
    I can’t wait for the manufactures to start offering an abundance of incentives/rebates again!
     
  5. Jun 28, 2022 at 10:09 PM
    #5
    Coal Dragger

    Coal Dragger New Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2021
    Member:
    #63259
    Messages:
    2,922
    Gender:
    Male
    Vehicle:
    2007 White Double Cab Limited 5.7L 4X4
    I wanted a faster vehicle so I also bought a Chevy SS... because 4 door sedans with big V8’s are hilarious.
    Yeah it will be nice. Give it time there’s going to be deals to be had for those who are patient and conservative with their money.
     
  6. Jun 29, 2022 at 5:30 AM
    #6
    Stumpjumper

    Stumpjumper New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2016
    Member:
    #4546
    Messages:
    3,288
    Gender:
    Male
    Fate, Tx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Tundra TSS 4x4
    Used vehicle prices are already coming down. We are headed to an inflation induced recession and new vehicles prices will follow at some point. I can already see the impact of higher prices at stores. I was at WalMart last week and several store brand items were out of stock. Walking down the laundry detergent aisle the shelves with high cost brands were full while the lower cost brands were only available in large bottles.
     
  7. Jun 29, 2022 at 5:34 AM
    #7
    andnyleswillriot

    andnyleswillriot Not Remote Working

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2020
    Member:
    #51877
    Messages:
    519
    Gender:
    Male
    Breckenridge, CO
    Vehicle:
    2016 DC w/ Black Topo Topper
    Toytec 3" w/2.5 Coilovers. SPC UCA's. Method Roost Bronze Wheels. 35" BFG KO2's. SPC Upper Control Arms. 2019+ TRD Pro Grill. LED headlight bulbs. 2020 OEM LED Fog lights. Tech12volts Remote Start. MobArmor Magnetic Phone Mount. Topo Topper.
    Living in an extremely popular tourist town, I can tell ya that people are already worried about a recession and changing their spending habits. Sure, they're still using just as much gas even with it being expensive, but once they get here they're not spending as much. Every retail store in town is down from this time last year as are the pricier restaurants.
     
  8. Jun 29, 2022 at 5:40 AM
    #8
    Kung

    Kung Dead sexy

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Member:
    #43761
    Messages:
    3,429
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Matt
    KG, VA
    Vehicle:
    2020 SR5 CM 4WD, TRD Off-Road, Voodoo Blue
    Spiffy console tray Spiffy N-Fab steps Spiffy Katzkin seats
    That's assuming they're not playing around with statistics, which I'd almost bet they are. I remember being taught leading indicators of economic growth (e.g., durable goods, housing starts, etc.) and every time those go up, the gov't trumpets that fact. Soon as they go down, suddenly they pivot to other factors that don't really mean squat.
     
  9. Jun 29, 2022 at 5:52 AM
    #9
    Cpl_Punishment

    Cpl_Punishment Young men never die.

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2019
    Member:
    #25048
    Messages:
    14,232
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Rosy
    Alberta, Canada
    Vehicle:
    2020 MGM SR5 CM 4X4
    Boost Auto mirrors, RSB, Leer Legend canopy, Line-X bed liner
    Tell you what, I'll blindfold a monkey and get him to throw a dart at a board with various potential scenarios on it. I'm as likely to be right in my predictions as anyone else.
     
  10. Jun 29, 2022 at 6:01 AM
    #10
    vtl

    vtl New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2020
    Member:
    #44238
    Messages:
    1,612
    Gender:
    Male
    Boston 'burbs
    Vehicle:
    19 Red SR5
    It is already better (more cars, or less buyers, or both).

    6 months ago a dealer wanted MSRP + 5k non-refundable deposit on top. A week ago he asked +3k for the same model, but after seeing our backs agreed to sell for MSRP.

    I drive by car auction once a week. In 2021 its vast parking space was maybe 20% full, down from nearly 100% in pre-COVID 2019. Now it is more like 60%.
     
  11. Jun 29, 2022 at 6:05 AM
    #11
    Stumpjumper

    Stumpjumper New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2016
    Member:
    #4546
    Messages:
    3,288
    Gender:
    Male
    Fate, Tx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Tundra TSS 4x4
    Yep, if you go to Google you will see all sorts of different views. 2 days ago there was an article the stated the social security inflation adjustment would be 5.9% then yesterday I saw one that stated 11%. No one really knows what the stock market or economy is going to do. It is all conjecture at this point.
     
  12. Jun 29, 2022 at 6:26 AM
    #12
    Jeff_5_7

    Jeff_5_7 New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2021
    Member:
    #59378
    Messages:
    1,359
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Jeff
    Houston Tx Area
    Vehicle:
    2007 RCSB 2014+ TRD Pro Conversion 5.7 4x4
    Full 2014+ Conversion Regular Cab Short Bed 4X4 2019 TRD Pro Grill, 2014+ Front End Swap 2014+ Interior/Dash Swap with TRD Pro Leather Seats, 2014+ Bed Swap with TRD Pro Stamping SOS 2/4 Drop Kit
    I long for the days when you could buy a brand new fully loaded crewmax for under $50k. My cousin grabbed one for like $45k out the door one month into Covid. It was a 2020 TRD Sport

    Nobody was spending money and dealers had to get aggressive to move inventory.

    Will we see that again? Depends on how bad this recession actually is.

    I personally don’t think it would be the worst thing to bring everything back down to “normal” levels. Houses, cars, ect.

    Instead of nice gradual growth over the last few years we had a slump, then skyrocketed upward. Another big slump down and then back to gradual steady growth would really reset the markets.

    Part of me is holding out for this to maybe then snag a 2022 Platinum, as long as dealers are asking 70-80k I’m not interested. Get back down to low to mid 50s I’m probably a buyer.
     
  13. Jun 29, 2022 at 6:28 AM
    #13
    DrZoidberg

    DrZoidberg New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2021
    Member:
    #63955
    Messages:
    3,431
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Dave
    SATX
    Vehicle:
    Tesla MYP
    Forget the incentives and rebates, there will be repo deals to be had at your local bank's parking lot.
     
    Leo's first likes this.
  14. Jun 29, 2022 at 6:30 AM
    #14
    Cpl_Punishment

    Cpl_Punishment Young men never die.

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2019
    Member:
    #25048
    Messages:
    14,232
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Rosy
    Alberta, Canada
    Vehicle:
    2020 MGM SR5 CM 4X4
    Boost Auto mirrors, RSB, Leer Legend canopy, Line-X bed liner
    It always is. Anyone who tells you they can guarantee what the market will do is lying.
     
    Leo's first likes this.
  15. Jun 29, 2022 at 6:59 AM
    #15
    BayRunner

    BayRunner I’m here, except when I’m not

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Member:
    #9507
    Messages:
    2,534
    Gender:
    Male
    Vehicle:
    2017 Tundra Platinum
    I think this is spot on. I also think dealers are going to have their backs against the wall when the economy gets really tight and consumers finally realize that the prices of new vehicles are insanely high. Could be wrong but think incentives will need to be offered to move inventory.
     
  16. Jun 29, 2022 at 7:02 AM
    #16
    eharri3

    eharri3 New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2018
    Member:
    #16695
    Messages:
    997
    Gender:
    Male
    Vehicle:
    2021 F150 Powerboost
    I think high prices continue for a bit as it takes time for the recession to trickle down to where it causes people to alter lifestyle decisions such as vehicle choices. High prices and scarcity continue for a bit and when the sales are suppressed for awhile, like months, inventory and discounts start to come back. Manufacturers don’t want to go back to the old way but will probably be forced to to move vehicles.
     
  17. Jun 29, 2022 at 7:03 AM
    #17
    Kung

    Kung Dead sexy

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2020
    Member:
    #43761
    Messages:
    3,429
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Matt
    KG, VA
    Vehicle:
    2020 SR5 CM 4WD, TRD Off-Road, Voodoo Blue
    Spiffy console tray Spiffy N-Fab steps Spiffy Katzkin seats
    Same. Got a Voodoo Blue 2020 CM 4WD SR5 with SR5 Upgrade Package, TRD Off-Road, and some other stuff, PLUS lifetime engine warranty for $41.7K. :)
     
  18. Jun 29, 2022 at 10:44 AM
    #18
    Stumpjumper

    Stumpjumper New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2016
    Member:
    #4546
    Messages:
    3,288
    Gender:
    Male
    Fate, Tx
    Vehicle:
    2017 Tundra TSS 4x4
    On the local news today a mortgage company is laying off all their employees. Mortgage business drying up is just the beginning. Tesla is also going to have a big layoff. This is just the beginning. In 2008 it was questionable lending on houses. This time it is going to be all the people that are upside down on auto loans. Dealers in DFW are listing Raptors for $115K. That is more then double what I paid for my first house and almost as much as I paid for my current house. There will be fools out there that get over extended.
     
  19. Jun 29, 2022 at 11:19 AM
    #19
    DrZoidberg

    DrZoidberg New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2021
    Member:
    #63955
    Messages:
    3,431
    Gender:
    Male
    First Name:
    Dave
    SATX
    Vehicle:
    Tesla MYP
    Yup. I passed on a pro with markup. I put the $8k into some options the last few weeks and I'm halfway to purchasing it outright. But will sit tight for now. Although the housing market is nothing like 2008, the frivolous spending on overpriced items is new. More layoffs in certain industries coming. I've already started noticing new hire offers being rescinded and requisitions being removed.
     
  20. Jun 29, 2022 at 11:52 AM
    #20
    shawn474

    shawn474 Lego connoisseur

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2019
    Member:
    #33569
    Messages:
    2,114
    Gender:
    Male
    MoCo, Maryland
    Vehicle:
    2019 Cement Tundra crew max TRD Off Road
    This is NOT meant to be political…..but it all depends on what incentives are being offered. My buddy is a GSM at a very high volume Toyota dealership.

    When people were losing their jobs, getting laid off and being furloughed, he said business was never better for dealerships. During the pandemic NOBODY wanted to take public transportation. So with the stimulus money, people never stopped buying cars. And because it was “free” money they often bought out of their means because they were getting checks above and beyond what they made working. Assuming the stimulus checks are not coming back, I would imagine dealerships will have creative incentives, rebates and/or financing to keep their revenue stream going. They may not make as much per vehicle but they could start making back in terms of volume (assuming the supply chain shortage issues are figured out).
     
  21. Jun 29, 2022 at 12:38 PM
    #21
    BayRunner

    BayRunner I’m here, except when I’m not

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Member:
    #9507
    Messages:
    2,534
    Gender:
    Male
    Vehicle:
    2017 Tundra Platinum
    Yup, the tech industry is currently overpaid and over staffed. There are many articles floating around stating where the tech companies that weee managed well are about double staffed and the ones managed poorly are overstaffed by 4 times. The point is that it’s all about to catch up and many of these tech companies will need to adjust their staffing levels in order to survive. In my outfit, we had to seriously up salaries just to retain folks. Luckily we have some good people but still many are way over paid.
     
  22. Jul 7, 2022 at 3:48 PM
    #22
    Shamrock92

    Shamrock92 New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2020
    Member:
    #44524
    Messages:
    1,078
    Gender:
    Male
    Supply - demand

    IF manufacturers keep cranking out cars - it could cause a price war.

    But they likely won’t - they will cut back - both out of concern for the economy and simply lack of components. As a result we keep up with the trend of paying more and getting less.

    Remember - even in depressions - people bought expensive new autos. Cars have a limited life and some people will always want a new vehicle as a status symbol. What suffers is the middle market and the common consumer m/used cars. New will still remain in demand and unless there is a significant oversupply - prices remain high.

    2007-2008 saw low prices thanks to no one seeing the recession coming and makers building as many as they could. That won’t happen this time and the demand for higher efficiency and EV will push new sales further.
     

Products Discussed in

To Top