Depreciation

I am currently in the process of potentially trading in my 21 F150 for a 21 Tundra (no - I do not want to start another F150 v. Tundra thread). However, I do have a question. In most online research that I do (e.g., https://caredge.com/toyota/tundra/depreciation), Tundras are reported to depreciate as fast, or even faster, than an F150. However, real world experience (prices and a quick check of the KBB values of my F150 and a 21 Tundra that initially sold for the same price) show a very different picture. Just wondering if anyone had any insight as to why the data from caredge.com would be so different than what we actually observe?

 

I would guess there are many more F150's on the road than Tundras, and the Tundra's last longer. Probably just demand pricing, although that should be considered in depreciation, if I remember my marketing, lol.

 

About a month and a half ago, I traded my 2018 Crewmax SR5, TRD Off Road, with Running Boards, bed liner, tonneau cover, bucket seat option and another option package that I can't remember. The MSRP was $48,500. I picked it up as a dealer promo/leftover for $40,000. Got $35,000 for trade. 28% depreciation on MSRP over 5 year period. That's my real life example......

 

Take what you read on those sites with a grain of salt, do independent research always. Many sites like that are sort of like the magazines of old. automaker 1 bought a nice full page article for the new car, we arent going to trash it 6 pages later. Instead we'll compare it to a car that is older to show how its an improvement.

Toyota trucks hold value pretty well when compared to the competition.

 

Toyota sells something like 1/6th to 1/8th the number of trucks the domestics do and people tend to hold them a long time. The used market has an appetite even for old high mileage models if they are well kept because they are desirable due to reputation and hard to find. Check Carmax and you'll get a sense of what I mean. If I want a 3-5 year old F150 with under 60K there's a ton out there. I don't have to go online, I can just go out and start hitting dealerships randomly and finding them. Lease turn ins, trades, rental turn ins, fleet turn ins. All flooding the market waiting for buyers.

A Tundra in that mold is going to be rare, you'll need to do some legwork to find it and you may have to travel to look at it. The data that feeds into a particular site's numbers may or may not reflect all this. Sometimes it's regional and will lump markets with different conditions together. If average 30 day auction selling prices figure in that may not make it accurate to the actual market prices you encounter. You're trading the first year of a new body style F150 that's now out there in abundance for the last year of a previous body style Tundra that everybody who didn't want a 22 scrambled for.

I would expect to pay up for the Tundra and to get your balls busted on the F series if it is wrapped into the same transaction at the same dealer.

 

Initial depreciation could be similar (although it’s not). Look at 5 year or more and the Toyota trucks in general shine.

 

Sounds about right with under 50k miles I bet. My 16 Platinum had a trade in of 31k and had 86k miles. (about two months ago as well)

 

How about some anecdotal evidence..

'14DC SR5, TRD offroad package. Figure it went for 40ish new. range was 27k for lowest to 54k for top CM. top of the line DC were being tested at 47k in what i can find this morn from period data.
Today KBB says 28k trade in 29k private. For a 10 year old truck.


Can you find for me a common model F150 thats 10 years old and 70% of its original value?

 

Here's some of the higher end models for sale near me

 

Some Lariats, mid range

 

I would expect the raptor to hold its price. Special model truck.

The '13 supercrew limiteds you've shown here had prices from 50-55k (2x - 4x) (using MSRP same as i did for Tundra). So 50% isnt too bad for an F150.

 

You are correct. 46k miles

 

It could be any number of things such as where they source their data, what assumptions they make about the data or even how they apply analytics that account for the delta. Without knowing their internal workings no one can tell you a definitive answer.