5.7x28 guys

I just picked up the new Smith &Wesson M&P 5.7.
I put 50 rounds through it. This thing is a incredible. I've shot both the FN and Ruger version. The ergonomics are spot on. I highly recommend checking this thing out.

 

She looks like a beauty

 

It's a fun shooter.

 

I havent quite figured out why people post gun pics on a tundra forum. Given that its not hard to find you online, just using some basics, posting photos of your guns for people to steal doesnt seem super on point...

 

People post pics of all sorts of things on this forum…bikes, ATVs, knives, campers, kayaks, smokers, etc etc etc, and their trucks of course.

Are all these items in danger of being stolen because pictures have been posted on the Tundra forum? Or just guns?

Also, maybe it’s just me, but the last person I want to attempt to steal something from is someone I *know* is armed. Lol.

 

ATVs, bikes, campers, kayaks all have some direct tie to a truck- the ability to be in the outdoors etc. I dont know many bad guys who want to steal a kayak, but a stolen gun that can't be tracked back to the bad guy? all day long. And stealing from an armed person isnt the point I was trying to make- because I can easily find out where you live via google, its fairly easy to see the next step which is waiting to break into your house or car until youre not around.

If everyone wants to advertise to the world that they have guns available for the black market then cool, I was just asking a question Cheers!

 

Firearms have a direct tie to a truck as well. It's why this subforum exists.

You "don't know many bad guys who want to steal a kayak"? How many bad guys do you know? Do you own a kayak, bike, ATV, camper, or knife collection? Do you leave it unsecured?

It just comes across as a little bit ridiculous. Like everyone doesn't secure their firearms. You saying that due to my pics on this forum, someone may find my address, come to my neighborhood, hang out on the street or in a tree until I leave or until they learn my patterns, get past my extremely nosy and vigilant neighbors who have already posted their description or their license plate if they park on the street for more than 5 minutes, get past my dog and my security system, find my safe, break into my safe (good luck), and get away with stealing my firearms.

I mean, look at all the stolen gun posts on the forum. It's a huge % of the Guns & Hunting subforum. We better shut it down. All the firearms forums like Snipers Hide–they need to ban pics, too. Your local guns & ammo shop? I sure hope bad guys don't use Google to find its address. Lol.

 

Lol hey man, if you wanna post all your gun stuff and advertise it to the world, more power to ya. All I was doing was pointing out my opinion, after a career in LE, of what a bad idea that is. If you disagree, keep on keepin on my man.
Oh, and to your point, no, I dont know of any street gangs, organized crime organizations, or cartels that are in the business of stealing Kayaks, and I dont remember the last time I heard of one being used in an armed robbery. Stolen guns on the other hand? I believe the last statistic I saw was over 1M guns stolen from "legal" gun owners over the past couple of years. So yeah, advertising you have guns, and then telling everyone on a public forum about your nosy neighbors, your security system and your safe might not be the best idea. But what do I know. Just a dumb ex cop here who did a little organized crime work in his day.
So, yes, after a long time in LE, and after lots, and lots, and lots of stolen firearms cases, burglaries, armed robberies etc, where the bad guys intentionally staked out someone's house who they knew to have guns, I advise against it. But like I said, you do you man. Cheers!

 

Funny you mention kayaks and armed robbery, because I can’t find a single case of a kayak being used as a legal and highly effective crime deterrent by private citizens, either.

The single largest source of stolen guns is stolen cars. I do agree with the idea that leaving guns in your truck is irresponsible, even if you lock in a $100 Amazon safe.

I wish the best of luck to whomever chooses to act on the information I have provided through the above posts that mention my dog, security system, safe, and neighbors whose hobbies include paranoid surveillance.

 

While I dont have any desire to debate this with you ad nauseum, I'll just give you this tidbit and leave it. I always find it funny when someone tries to give some decent advice, or perspective, and the immediate response is "you dont know what youre talking about". Lol ok bro. Best of luck to you out in Nashville.

Gun owners were also more likely to have guns stolen if they had six or more guns (4.5 vs. 1.7%), owned guns for protection (3.1 vs. 1.0%), carried guns in the past month (5.3 vs. 1.7%), did not store their guns in the safest manner (2.9 vs 1.0%) and, non-significantly, stored guns in the car (5.7 vs. 2.2%). A significantly higher percentage of gun owners from the South region had guns stolen (3.7 vs. 1.4%). Our survey indicates that 43% of gun owners reside in the South (694/1611) and 2/3 of gun thefts occur in the South.

Given that 2/3 of all gun thefts in America are committed in the South, and given the largest percentage of gun owners live there, I dont think the statement of "come get my guns cause im armed", or "my neighbors will see you" has been very meaningful in its prevention of gun thefts... Oh, and for guys who buy 5.7's, their sole design purpose was to defeat body armor. So when those guns end up on the streets, and apparently lots and lots of stolen guns come from your area, its the cops who are most at risk, since bad guys almost never wear body armor.


For some reason I remember Tennessee being considered part of the south? Cant remember... Like I said, you do you bro!

 

I don’t mind discussing this at all.

So, if you have ≥6 guns, you are 2.8% more likely to have a gun stolen. This really doesn’t seem significant. Same for the other statistics: owned for protection 2.1% more likely, carried in the past month 3.6% more likely, etc. I’m surprised that unsafe storage only raised the likelihood 1.9%. How are these figures significant, if the difference of guns stolen in the car (5.7% vs 2.2%, a difference of 3.4% as you listed above) is as you say not significant?

And they’re saying that nearly half of all gun owners live in the South, yet the difference in guns stolen is only 2.3% higher than those who live in the rest of the US? Is this supposed to be particularly incriminating of the South?

What I don’t quite understand—and I would love to see the source material to see exactly how they arrived at these numbers—is the quote on guns stolen from cars. In 2023 so far in Nashville, 78% of stolen guns are taken from vehicles.
Yet another report in 2020 based on FBI crime data spanning 271 small- to large-size cities across 38 states said that 52% of all stolen firearms came from cars.

 

No, the south accounts for 66% of all gun thefts nationwide. 43% of gun owners live in the South, yet 66% of all guns stolen nationally come from there.
Admittedly, all gun data is hard to interpret, because we dont collect or report on it very well. There are plethoras of sources people use, including news reports. Congress wont allow us to study gun violence, so most of the data has to come from an interpretation of multitudes of other sources.
There is enough info out there to argue either side of this point, it all depends on what data you pay attention to.
The point of my post was not necessarily a definitive, double blind study on gun theft, but instead merely a suggestion from a guy who spent lots of years chasing after guns and the organizations that steal them. And yes, that experience does include many instances of people's homes/cars/places of work being targeted because of social media, blog and other postings.

 

Youre misinterpreting the data also.
The guns stolen from a car statistic is 5.7% of all gun owners who store their guns in their car reported gun thefts, as compared to 2.2% of gun owners who did not keep them in their car. You're focusing on the difference in percentages. What you should be looking at is the ratio between the two. If youre a gun owner, and you keep your gun in your car, you are 260% more likely to have it stolen, than if you dont keep it in your car. (5.7/2.2= 260%).
So, what this data is saying, is that although the total number of thefts as a percentage may not seem large, when compared to the people who dont keep them in their cars, the increase is exponential, not a mere 3.4%. Its actually almost 3x as likely you will have your gun stolen from your car as compared to people who dont keep it there.

 

How on earth could you not have anticipated this?! Allow me to diagram for you.

 

Lol fair enough...

 

It’s not a misinterpretation to say that the % of guns stolen from people who keep them in their car is a little higher than the % of guns stolen from people who don’t. 5.7% of people who keep guns in the car have had them stolen, vs 2.2% of people who have had guns stolen and don’t keep them in the car. One group has a slightly higher theft case than the other. This is not misinterpretation—it’s simply another interpretation. Those are different sets of people, but the likelihood only goes up a few % if you move from one set to the other. Yes, because the numbers are so small, one % is 2-3x the other. (By the way, 2-3x is a linear increase, not exponential. Graph y=3x. This is a line, whereas an exponential relationship looks like y=x^n).

100% agreed. Look at the wide variety of DGU reports or reports on various kinds of shootings. The data swings wildly based on how the basic terms are defined.

 

The percentages overall are not massive no, and yes, you can interpret it any way you want, but the thing that jumps out to me, and all of my buddies I worked the streets with for a long, long time, is the ratio. 3x as likely to have it stolen from a car as not. Yes, only 5% of total, but when you compare it to people who dont keep it there, its triple. That is the compelling statistic here.
Look at the stats on DUI's. The estimate is about 150 million drivers drove drunk in 2018. There were about 50k DUI fatalities that year. Thats about .034%. If I'm understanding you correctly, that is such a small percentage that we shouldn't pay any attention to it. So, when you compare DUI fatalities to all of the times people drove drunk, you get a tiny percentage. But when you compare fatalities to fatalities, I.e. sober people vs drunk people, you see that drunk people represent 30% of all traffic fatalities. You're doing the same thing with gun thefts. Yes, only 5% of total gun thefts come from cars, but when you compare those gun thefts vs people who dont store them in cars, its triple, and that is the compelling data point here. Takeaway: if you store your gun in your car, youre 3x as likely to have it stolen as if you dont keep it there, which has nothing to do with overall gun theft.
Again- 66% of all gun thefts come from the South, so the arguments that everyone is armed, or my neighborhood is gated, or I have cameras or a dog, dont seem to really play much into the deterrent idea.... And every illegal gun starts out as a legal one BTW.
Regardless of how you look at the data, all I was trying to do was to offer you some insight on maybe why posting about your gun ownership on a public forum might not be a good idea. Does it mean yours will be stolen? Maybe, maybe not. I would also advise you not to drive drunk. Does that mean you will kill someone tonight if you do drive drunk? Maybe, maybe not. Again, just giving out some free advice.

 

I remember seeing numbers put out about deaths of a specific illness with people who have been preventatively treated vs not. All the headlines were something like “you’re 2x as likely to die!” or “the chances of you dying without this preventative treatment are 200% of your chances of dying with it!” You know what the percentages were? 0.5% and 1%. Another way to look at that, which is also completely true and completely valid is, you have a half a percent higher chance if you belong to the one group rather than the other. While both statements regarding the data are true, knowing the actual percentages takes the wind out of the sails for the “you’re twice as likely to die! Reeeeeeeee!” interpretation. The articles trying to scare people into clicking on them also failed to acknowledge other factors, such as age, in which deaths drastically skew toward the oldest individuals.

Anyway, I looked up your study that says 43% of gun owners live in the South, and 66% of stolen guns are stolen in the South. This study, which includes the other various conclusions you originally quoted, is the result of a survey.

• 3949 people completed this survey.
• 1604 people answered the question (and its follow-ups) regarding gun theft.
• Only 2.4% of those 1604 people said they had a firearm stolen in the previous 5 years. All the data in this study regarding firearm theft is based on those people. Depending on how they rounded, that’s only 38 or 39 people!!

And then they extrapolated that data to a nationwide scale, touting that some of their conclusions were consistent with other studies while admitting they have “limited statistical power” and are hamstrung by multiple and various unknowns.

Your quoted study’s conclusion about guns being stolen from vehicles is so incredibly far off from the one that I cited (52% of all stolen guns come from vehicles) which uses the data pool of 271 US cities that each report data to the FBI (PS: this is a FAR larger data pool than the 39 surveyed individuals of your study). Honestly, this calls into question your study’s other conclusions for me.

It’s notable that no questions were asked nor data provided on people who anonymously post photos of their firearms on the internet. Lol

 

thats the really cool thing about statistics, it allows you to make inferences about the population as a whole, since there is no way to survey the entire population. Not hard to mathematically show why statistics works, and so do the inferences drawn from that data.
Again, and I'll let this die here. Im not quite certain why youre so set in disproving my data, when it really doesnt matter. You and I can go the rounds on drunk driving too. "Its such a small percentage! Reeeeee! dont fall for the media and the propaganda!" The entire point of my original post, which I will reiterate, is that someone with a pretty decent amount of time chasing around bad guys who steal guns is giving out some advice, and saying, "look, I have personal experience with this, and I dont think this is a great idea" and you want to debate statistics. I've pulled some dead kids out of cars caused by DUI crashes too, do you want to tell me that the chances are so low that it applies to you that youre willing to drive drunk anyway? Totally your decision, but lets get off the "my statistics prove im right" train and just admit that you've formed an opinion, a dude with a lifetime of experience is trying to share some of that with you, and no amount of advice or data will ever change your opinion. Cheers man!

 

I am never willing to drive drunk. I actually don't drink. But that doesn't mean that I'm unwilling to share anonymous pics of firearms on the internet. I've posted one pic of one hunting rifle. Not a big deal in my book. Not a big deal to the hundreds of other members who have anonymously posted pics of theirs as well.

I'm just pointing out that your argument about gun thefts in the South is based on a pretty crappy set of statistics.

"43% of gun owners live in the South." This is based on this one survey where 43% of the 1600ish respondents said they live in the South.
"66% of all stolen guns are stolen in the South." This is based on 26 of those 38 or 39 people who have had a gun stolen in the last 5 years saying they live in the South.

This study includes other conclusions that vary WILDLY from other studies that have a far more robust set of data. The sample size is too small (by a factor of 10) to give us even a 95% confidence interval with a 5% margin of error for a population of 1.8M estimated stolen guns.
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Just saw @ColoradoTJ's post. Will continue in PM if desired.

Never shot a 5.7x28 myself.

 

As stated in the previous post- we dont have a great source for gun stats. Are 66% of all guns stolen from the south? Does it really matter?
You post something online about your truck engine, and a mechanic says "oh, we've been having lots of problems with that lately"
You then cite some statistics to show the mechanic must be wrong, because these kinds of engine problems are incredibly rare.
The reality here is that unless you have spent your career in LE, youre a layperson, just like if you post about engine problems without being a mechanic by trade, you are a layperson.
I've never understood the mentality of "you have some info, and I dont like it, so you're wrong", instead of just saying thanks for the advice i'll take it into account.
This is where I'll end this one.

 

Hopefully it holds up, I gave up on S&W too many quality issues BUT they did correct them all for free........

 

in their M&P line? Wheel guns?

 

I'm hesitant to wade into a statistics debate, but I think @Terndrerrr concern is that your evidence from the survey is statistically insignificant based on sample size, sampling method, and poor response rate. Your career in law enforcement while admirable (and certainly appreciated) offers anecdotal evidence at best. AE is at the bottom of the hierarchy when it comes to evidence based research/statistical analysis. Systemic reviews sit on top, double blind, etc etc make their way down in terms of applicable, reliable info.

 

My brother has the FN it's alright. It's not 3x better (more fun) as the ammo price would suggest. But he likes it. I'm saving my used tungsten for him.

a buddy of mine is looking at the m&p version, and he's a competition guy, so i'd guess theres not enough difference to make a difference. But i think i'll stick with my cheap freedom seeds.


Me when someone shows up to steal my guns.

 

No wheel guns. 380,9&40 every single one had a faulty mag catch issues that resulted in zero mags working in that firearm.