Acquiring a new 2021 Tundra in these times?

Internet says the MSRP was $68k in 2006.

 

I think you're right on that, and not just on vehicles. On the larger scale people are paying batshit crazy prices on houses. In my neighborhood the houses are selling almost 25% higher than 2 years ago when I bought. In the next year or two that will shake out and people will be upside down and pissed.

However, things have been a little unusual since 2020 started and I wouldn't bet that the new model will drop the price of the old model, in the past I completely would have agreed. I think Toyota will take every penny they can and know people will pay for the last year of the 5.7. The new model will probably just cost more than the 2021. With this situation I don't see incentive for dealers to throw sales down, its a win-win for them.

 

I guess I need to get onboard and sell my boat then. $$$

 

This is exactly what happened to me. Dealers don't care now because they have market advantage and they know it, hence why they are arrogant about it. Its not personal, just business. I bought a 2021 a month ago and I really had a hard time. I have owned close to 50 new vehicles, so I'm familiar with this game and I struggled. I Contacted about 20-25 dealers within 500 mile radius. Almost all told me there is no stock or you will pay 5-10k above Msrp no questions asked. I lucked out because I put my name on a list and someone cancelled their order as it arrived because he couldn't make financing. He had ordered the truck 5 months prior. The catch is that I had to drive 300 miles away to go get it and it was a colour I don't like "White". But thats life, and Im happy I got most of what I want given the situation. I was able to get 1500 off msrp, so i was good with that.

The crazy thing is that, when i picked up the truck and was leaving the dealership, the manager waves me back and asked me the strangest thing. He said if i walked away from the deal and gave back the truck, he was willing to give me 3k cash and all my money back for the truck. This has never ever happened to me. Apparently someone saw it the night before i picked it up and wanted to buy it.

 

The dealer I went to explained that they won't charge over MSRP or try to stick you with Dealer Installed Options or other BS because they are trying to maintain their reputation and that once you figure out you got hosed you will never go back to them for another car or refer someone to them. My Spidey Senses were tingling throughout the whole ordeal... I got assurances that there would be no BS when my truck came in and that my deal was just what was committed and agreed to. I have to say this is the first vehicle that I ever paid close to MSRP on and feel I was treated well by the dealer. I reported 1 dealer to Toyota and BBB about their practice of forcing the customer to pay for Dealer Installed Options whether the customer declined them before the vehicle was delivered or not and TOYOTA and SE TOYOTA said that they try to stay out of dealer disputes when it comes to pricing and dealer sales practices. I told the VP that by staying out of it that they condone the practice and he didn't seem to like that. But it is true and he knows it. I am sure this dealer plays games with DIO's, financing/leasing/extended warranties etc. but I wasn't going down that hole and let them know right up front.

 

My local dealer is sitting on 3 Tundra 2X2s and they don't seem to be moving...

 

Toyota has been able to get away with these types of practices because they having such good products. But seriously, I’ve had almost all of my bad dealership experiences at Toyota dealers. Bottomline the people that run Toyota dealers are mostly scum. They take advantage of all customers, high credit and especially low credit customers.

 

I've only dealt with 1 Lexus dealer... and they were very good to deal with... They even did a "courtesy trade" for me when I sold my 4Runner to a private buyer. When I told them that I wasn't trading my vehicle in and that I had a buyer lined up, they volunteered to do the "courtesy trade" for no fees whatsoever. Saved me about $1200 in sales tax and I got my price for the vehicle. If Lexus made a pickup I would buy it.

 

Because dealer added markup and baiting the next desperate person with too much money and no where to spend it on.

 

OP, Everyone on this thread is just guessing what the market will be like down the road two years, 13 months, or even 6 months from now - myself included. But to get the best guesstimate I like to first work with the known variables.

Variable #1 - Inflation is here. The federal government chose to pay people not to work for the last 16 months and pumped trillions of dollars that didn't exist into the system electronically without printing another dollar. That is inflation.

Variable #2 - The federal reserve has indicated that interest rates will begin to rise sooner than expected.

Variable #3 - There is high demand for vehicles that facilitate outdoor recreation and travel activities. (i.e. boats, ATVs, OHVs, Travel Trailers, and Trucks to move them around). Supply chains have not been restored and won't likely catch up with demand for a long time.

So where do you want to be in times of inflation? The answer is a lot of expensive assets, and low interest debt(homes, property in general, vehicles that are in high demand, etc). Their values are going to rise with inflation. Right now, rates are still ridiculously low as demand for these items are high. Some people say you will be "overpaying" at MSRP or above. I will tell you they simply don't understand the marketplace.

Now, another important question is: where don't you want to be financially at a time of inflation? The answer is sitting on a bunch of cash. That shit is tanking right now. Demand for homes, personal trucks, and recreation type vehicles isn't slowing anytime soon. A bunch of cash has been flood into the system, so prices are going up. Soon, interest rates will be up. If I were in the market for a truck, I would go find one NOW!

 

I think good deal. The pro is rarely discounted or 1k off at most. Plus get rid of the 3rd Gen Taco power train which sucks. Not hating just liked the 1st and 2nd gen Tacoma more.

 

I wouldn't buy a truck with 2 wheels either.

 

Real estate are always sound investment

Boats, RV, ATV are a niche market place and has its up and downs

Auto industry are always trying to out do each and their revenue isn’t as important as their number of unit sold traditionally. They had to shift their focus during this chip shortage but to think a company like Ford will let their F150 falls off the number one selling truck in America spot in unlikely… Bronco just started shipping to the dealers, chip foundry is giving their full attention to the auto manufacturers. The chip shortage was due to their underestimated timeline of how quick the economy would bounce back anyway.

 

This just happened

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...or-chip-shortage-plant-production/7811355002/

 

Chip shortage won’t go away anytime soon, takes months from start to finish. But you can bet every dollars that consumers spend on overpaying for a vehicle, new or used is being valued as a lost to the manufacturers that they could have made if they had sufficient inventory. They’re racing to get them back up and running.

 

Not being stubborn or difficult here, I have seen the term "overpaying". I would think overpaying means paying above market prices. The market is the market. Currently, high demand and influx of cash makes market prices higher, why is that "overpaying"? Can you explain what you mean by overpaying?

 

Overpaying as in a 6 month period what the same asset would be worth given the supply meets demands and inflation slow. Nothing is ever linear in the marketplace.

Lumber drop 41% just a week ago…

 

If you want one, you'll likely find one if you try hard enough. I just put a deposit on a '21 pro 2 weeks ago that goes into production next week. I paid MSRP and didn't even try to negotiate lower, I just didn't want to pay over that. I did haggle with my trade in. I am in a unique position to be able to buy the PRO without selling the tacoma, and told them that, so they did come in at a really nice trade in spot for me. My biggest concern is that something will happen with this one (i.e. chip shortage) but I'm willing to bet that once it has a VIN and is scheduled (check and check) the parts are already allocated.

 

Interesting discussion. Sometimes I find it helpful to put on a "what if" hat to try figure things out... and the one "what if" I haven't heard anyone discuss (or maybe I missed it) is...

What if the manufacturers decide they like this model of limited dealer inventory and more of a "build to order" model of business? Would that forever do away with the old days of incentives, rebates, and dealer negotiations? Would every transaction become MSRP or MSRP+? Would it help manufacturers control their costs and drive up transaction prices by only producing higher optioned / higher trim models?

I don't know if this would have ever happened under normal circumstances, but with how things worked out, it's the model they are operating in now. Will they ever want to go back? Would it be beneficial to them to go back?

Dunno.... just something to ponder.

 

Totally agree on this. I work with many companies who are completely flipping their business models. Many are seeing their company gross less, but net more due to different factors. Real estate costs being a big one, sending everyone home and potentially never bringing them back saves so much money in large rent costs. Just one example but this is a good point. I don't know if Toyota is seeing this same gross/net scenario, but I'm sure it's certainly appealing to be basically selling every truck before its even done production and not sitting on all this inventory.

 

I think this is a great point, as we don't know what the business models will be even in the near future, let alone a few years from now. But what we do know is that inflation isn't slowing, there is an influx of cash, and an increased demand for bigger vehicles. None of this says downward market correction to me.

 

Oh manufacturers love it.

Keep in mind the 4th gen is big, like very very big, about half foot wider than 2/3rd gen, I thought my Ram was too big and this one is going to be bigger than the new Ram 1500.

 

I take it you just drove off the lot and never looked back?

 

Once again - just watching this comedy unfold of people arguing things they have zero clue about.

The only things THAT are certain are:

- any new truck you buy is likely to depreciate by some amount over the next 1,3,5 year period with rare exception. How much - 5 or 50%…that’s where things like demand/supply and buyer preference come into play - not all trucks of similar spec depreciate equally.

- Toyota will make a Tundra in 2022.

- It’s hard to enjoy money when your dead. Buy what you like and can afford - don’t save it all thinking you’ll buy what makes you happy someday…that say might not be around.

 

This x10. I was thinking about selling my home a few months back but decided to keep it because who knows what the future holds at this point. Also toyed with the idea of buying precious metals, but I'm pretty late to the game on that one--wish I started years ago. But just in case cash becomes near worthless, at least I have a roof over my head and a reliable truck.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlyRQnmFtX0&t=128s

 

There are things you want to hold during periods of hyper inflation - and things you don’t.

Agree - currency of a tanking economy is one of the things you don’t want. Problem is - we are talking about the currency of the biggest financial domino and if it falls - they all fall.

Hoarding cash is never smart - even in stagflation. Stocks - you gotta pick and choose carefully….bonds…you’ll get slaughtered if rates rise.

But no one can say 100% what will happen and in fact it’s more probable that most will guess wrong. It’s part-mutual gambling - if we all bet on the winner - the payout is super low….but if you bet against everyone and are right a small percentage of the time - you will do very well likely.

Real estate can be a good place to be in periods of inflation - but a lot of what’s fueling real estate right now is super low mortgage rates…pretty soon those 500k homes at 2.25% will come back to 365k homes at 5% rates because the monthly payment will be equal. Buyer shop by budget - not asking price - just like cars. There’s a reason the dealer ask you your payment range up front - not how much do I need to knock off the sticker price to get you in this truck today.

Real estate is very funny though - prices may crash in the best of times otherwise. Houston office space for example in an economic boom nationwide - but when oil is crashing….homes will always be needed - but look at the trend of McMansions pre 2007 and how it reversed following the crash and rebirth with young buyers coming back the last few years buying formerly rough areas for affordable homes to reno and now are paying for more for houses that in 2007 cost a 10th of the price.

Long term - the best real estate performer - farm land. There’s a reason Bill Gates is the largest potato farmer in the world and it ain’t because he likes potato’s. That bubble will pop one day too - but to those he keep saying the boom in trucks will never last - just look at farmers. The ONLY ones profitable today in the US (not getting subsidized) are generational family farms. Why - a long term trend in higher land prices and higher equipment cost. Their parents/grandparents bought stuff years ago before price inflation - allowed them to ease into the business without having a huge start up cost. Funny to someone who was a teen in the mid 80s and grew up in country - couldn’t get a job working on a farm because everyone was going broke back then - seemed like farm credit was foreclosing and auctioning a farm a week around me. Those who survived - now they are long since comfortably retired and set their kids/grandkids for life probably.

 

I’m pretty sure we spun this topic out of control at this point but valid points nonetheless, but no potato farm for me.

 

Yes , I just drove off because I didn't want to go though the headache of buying again. Whatever I made , I could potentially pay in mark up for next vehicle.

 

Yeah back on topic vs potatoes. I decided I wanted one last V8 tundra (had a 07', 12' and 15') and wanted everything I wish those had. Local dealer had an allocation for a mag grey TRD Pro with Ridge Grapplers, PPF, LED int lights, spray in bedliner, etc. so I jumped on it for $500 off MSRP. I definitely vote for trying to get one of the last V8 vs one of the first turbo V6's personally....reminds me when the Raptor made the similar switch and many wish they would have got the V8 when it was available. The Tundra will be joining my 21' Land Cruiser Heritage in silver, which is my other "last of it's kind" vehicle. I agree it doesn't do any good to sit on cash right now...everyone needs a vehicle, so why not get something interesting before we are all driving golf carts.

Now the big question to me is regarding the above quote. I have a VIN and eta of 7/26. Does anyone have any insight as to chip shortage delays or otherwise any delays once you get VIN and eta?