How does auto manufacturing survive?

This. I'm old enough at least to have seen the major news outlets swap positions *so* many times it's not funny.

 

As you said "right now". But in 5 to 10 years EV technology will advance enough to make BEVs a viable replacement for gasoline cars. The challenges are:
- Range, especially when towing. Batteries are getting better, so ranges of 300+ miles will become the norm. There will be towing "penalty" but it also applies to gas powered vehicles. My car drops from 24 mph to 14 mph when towing.
- Charging times - while nobody wants to wait an hour, a 15 min stop every 5 hrs of driving will be acceptable for most people.
- Initial price - battery costs are going down, and assembling BEVs is cheaper that gasoline powered cars (by as much as 40% according to Ford)
- Charging stations - demand will create supply. In 1920 there were 15,000 gas stations in the US. The number grew to 100,000 in 1930. Today there are about 145,000. In 1920 there were few gas stations and very limited refining capacity. Businessmen like Rockefeller saw the opportunity and got rich. Today there are already 50,000 charging stations, albeit the average number of individual chargers per stations is low, just a little bit over 2. If they could do it in just 10 years in 1920s, it's stupid to believe that electricity supply, distribution and charging can't be resolved in a similar timeframe in the 21st century. With the arrival of more BEVs and charging stations, gas stations will become more and more scarce.

 

3-5% of vehicles purchased in the US are EV...its gonna be a minute. I see the EV mafia is strong in this thread

 

BEVs market share in 1st quarter of 2023 has been 7.2%, with a 45% year-on-year growth. Now that more BEV models are becoming available, some of them in the under $35k price range, this trend is likely to accelerate. With 45% growth rate, BEVs will hit 50% market share in less than 6 years.

 

And yet your still gonna need a gas powered vehicle to evacuate out of South Florida from a Cat 5 Hurricane when the power is out over 3/4 of the state and the safe zone is 4-500 miles away.

Or Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, etc

 

But it is possible to put gas truck tankers on the roadway for a fill up, or to bring gasoline to a vehicle stranded because it ran out of gas idling etc.that option is not possible for an EV. Same thing applies to car stuck in traffic during blizzard, or anytime an unexpected traffic situation causes fuel to be depleted.

 

It's all a scam!

What you hear in the media is what their corporate owners want you to think.

What you hear from the politicians is what their corporate owners want you to think.

The question is, why do they want you to think that?

It's likely not in your best interest.

 

Pretty much disagree with everything EV here. BEV's are still a luxury item, just ridiculous prices for these things. An they can't tow more than 50 miles, supply chain, infrastructure in this country is pathetic, trying to force the public to own them, etc, etc, it's not gonna happen anytime soon if at all for EV mass adoption.

 

EVs are an ideal solution for the majority of daily commuting needs due to their efficiency, low operating costs, and minimal environmental impact. Most people don't need more than 100 miles range, and you just plug it in at night. However, Towing capabilities, for instance, can be limited... like half the range, if not more. Additionally, extended road trips may prove challenging due to the limited charging infrastructure and longer refueling times when compared to ICE. This isn't a huge deal on a 400-mile trip, but it gets old real quick on longer ones.

To preserve the battery, you aren't supposed to charge to 100%... then add in 10-15% degradation... these 300-350 mile range EVs are actually 20-25% under those claims. Then if you live in Phoenix or any location with an extreme climate, you will give up another 10% for HVAC. Now finally, these range numbers are all EPA under perfect conditions. The reality being you get much less actual range, but it isn't a huge deal for day-to-day use.

Despite these limitations, electric vehicles excel in providing a reliable and eco-friendly solution for daily office commutes and urban transportation needs. Their low operating costs, instant torque, and reduced maintenance requirements make them an increasingly popular choice for drivers seeking a sustainable alternative. Especially with cheap electricity and government rebates.

All of that to say... Toyota is way fucking behind on all of this. I own several Teslas so I speak from experience.

 

Until you get in a fender bender an then the ridiculously expensive EV car is thrown away. Totaled by the insurance company if there is even a minute chance the battery may be compromised. Of course you can't tell because the batteries are sealed. On top of that the batteries only last about what??? 10 years or so?? So every 10 years or so you need to fork out $15-20K to keep your car on the road. IMO EV's are extremely wasteful. Sorry on paper they seem better, but in real life EV's suck for anyone that is not rich. Just dumb IMO for the middle class or anyone that doesn't live in a city. YMMV.

 

You sound really ignorant. Do you own one? Our Tesla was rear ended and repaired. It did take several weeks longer than a normal car would have. Parts were delayed.

 

Annual maintenance and fuel savings are no joke. For most city commuters it makes perfect sense. For towing, rural areas, and adventuring… no it doesn’t.

See attached for real numbers with supercharging and AZ electricity.

 

This is valid. I do wonder how much is actually recyclable long term.

 

You also sound really ignorant.

Especially since you resorted to an insult instead of intelligent debate.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a42709679/tesla-insurance-fixes-expense/

 

As an actual owner with real world experience, it’s just not true universally.

 

Arguably as an actual owner you are drunk on the EV Kool-aid and blind to the obstacles of EV adoption that many people are facing in this world.

 

This reminds me of reading about people boycotting gas stations. The combustion engine was scary for a lot of people. Horse and buggy was the way.
Change can be a real challenge for people. Some people adopt to change easier than others. EV’s are coming fast, some will make every excuse in the world to not face reality.

 

I disagree. EVs do go fast, yes, but that doesn't mean they are "coming fast".

 

I think the big difference from the horse and buggy changing to cars is that cars made sense to more people than not, cars did more work in less time, cars went further and worked harder and the govt did not force cars down peoples throats by trying to undermine consumer demand by regulating one out of business. The consumer chose cars over horses, Vhs over Beta..etc.

EV's are not inherently bad, nor are they a bad idea, they were actually around about the same time the car and horse debate was happening, but you know, people chose gas power cars then as well.

Regulating one industry out of existence in order to force feed another industry down the throats of a the consumer before the consumer is ready to accept it and decide on its own that it's the better choice for them is not the way.

 

Sounds just like the story I hear from pre-3rd gen tundra owners telling me how shitty my 3rd gen is

 

Rolling this debate back around to Toyota and the Tundra...Toyota will drag its feed and build what the consumer demands while at the same time being aware of the "new" EPA regulations designed to force gas vehicles out of existence, while waiting for the ownership of the Gov to flip from one to another delaying any regulations, or hopefully cementing into law any chance of regulations that force an industry out of business from ever happening....Kinda like the Auto industry did the last time this kinda thing happened.

 

Like I said. Some adopt faster to change than others. Hell, I still have my 5.7 Tundra and get 12-13 mpg.
Being blinded by negative talking points about EV’s is a different story. These people I’m sure are lost many ways and can be easily manipulated by negativity. Squirrel “breaking news” people.

 

Forums and other sources of news can be worse. Just saying. I have an aunt that still thinks Bill Gates developed COVID so he could inject tracking devices into people. Yes her FB and other apps don’t track a thing.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ajq46qHp0c&ab_channel=EngineeringExplained

 

Hydrogen sounds good due to people thinking its the same as gas. Just replace the gas with hydrogen. It is far from being that simple unfortunately.

 

You'll still need electricity to power the gas pumps to fuel up a gas vehicle too.

 

Not if you use a tanker truck, like they sometimes do when the power is out too long...or a generator..... I guess you could stick a big generator somewhere and plug in electric cars..I would hate to be in that line...lol

 

Oil companies were generous between 2016 and 2020 and then got greedy and stingy with their product in 2020? Nope, don't think so.

Oil is like any other businesss. When the regulatory environment seems favorable there is investment and expansion. When the regulatory and political environment is unfavorable to investment and expansion they horde cash and give some back to long term shareholders to show gratitude for staying all in. This is how business works. It's sound strategy. It would be a stupid move to invest in more product in a hostile regulatory environment where the government might turn your new pipeline off or revoke your lease once election season has passed and they have the breathing room to not worry about consumer fuel prices for another year or two.

One of the first moves out of the block was cancellation of a pipeline. They've also restricted leases for exploration. That does not affect prices by immediately changing current supplies. That affects current pricing by scaring the futures market, which bids up prices on future supplies based on predictions of scarcity derived from this regulatory environment. The prices you pay at the pump are a function of what the gas station thinks it will have to pay for its next delivery, not what it paid for what you're pumping now. That's what make that business a tough one to survive in and why it's not uncommon to see gas stations in some areas change hands multiple times in a short time frame.

Regulations have remained stifled over 2 years and there's only been a little bit of loosening very recently to beat back claims in 2024 that regulatory authority is being used to stifle fossil fuels. "Look, what are you guys talking about, we just auctioned off a bunch of leases last month!"

 

Someone’s been drinking that cool-aid.

What regulation has happened in the the past 10 years that have prevented oil companies from building new refineries?
Oil companies have over 12,000 permits for oil on land. Currently the main drilling restriction in the United States is off the shores of Florida.
Question, why would oil companies do anything different as in adding to infrastructure “new refineries” when they are making billions in profits every quarter?
Refineries are running at maximum capacity. Why break the money flow?

 

Ok, but you are less than probably .001% that do. I'm not saying EV is for the masses, but people tend to forget how much is ran/dependent on electricity. I couldn't even count the number of times the powers been out and you go and flick on a switch out of habit.

I'm not saying EV is the way to go either. Depends on your market and how you use it, but to make the claim that you range drops X% when you tow, or weather, or any other excuse, so do ICE and at about the same rate. Yes, charging is the issue, but do you leave your house with a full tank of gas everyday? To make a commute of <150 miles a day, EV's make sense in that duty. Come home and charge up so you have enough to make your daily. Now, if you regularly have a long commute or you road trip a lot, then no a EV is not the way to go.

I get most of this discussion is about the Gov. forcing this our way, but there is a place for both ICE and EV the way I look at it.