Ummm, Price Collapse?

the fallacy with hoping that companies bring in new oil & gas assets to relieve consumer pricing is that the economic environment globally is way too volatile for producers and refiners to make 10-20-50 year decisions

it's all over the news, and people think it's like a faucet that you can turn, but it's not

 

100% this. Markets hate uncertainty. A good deal of my career was spent in forecasting and asset and risk managment. Energy markets have always been a challenge but today's environment is a nightmare. And the more risk, the more upside potential you are going to want.

 

Since when was Lake Mead in the Midwest? Boat prices typically drop in the winter.

 

Lol, I saw that and suspected he meant Southwest. There's no water shortage in the Midwest and South. Take some. Please.

 

What can I say, blame it on my homeschooling

I'm wrong but anything left of the Missippi and Right of Cali I lazily refer to as "midwest".

 

We really dont have a winter here in the Valley (Phoenix AZ). Honestly prefer to go out boating November to February as there are far fewer people out, and those who are out seems to know a little more "boating etiquette".

Selling during that time, my experience, someone will buy the right boat at the right price - not saying cheaper. I typically buy during those months as then I'm not competing.

 

There are still many people who flatly refuse to work in the office, at all. They got used to the good life during covid and don't want to return to the grind ever again.
Their house payments, car payments? ..frankly they don't give a sh!t. They'll hold out as long as they have an iphone....

Things will be very ugly in the future.

 

A lot of old heads were forced to put their beliefs aside and manage a remote workforce. To their suprise a lot of businesses saw a more productive and happier workforce. It became hard to prove their misgivings after 2yrs of a successful trial period.

Now you have folks like the Mayor of NY forcing ALL employees back into an office regardless of common sense cases against such a broad sweeping policy. Infrastructure isn't cheap so I'm surprised they didn't do a hybrid solution and lose some of the overhead.

I don't understand Musk fighting so hard to bring back all workers either.

So much for less waste and pollution, it's all about the economy.

 

Good for those 'old heads' and Musk, too.

Lazy-assed losers refusing to get out of their pajamas to make a real living.
And refusing a robust economy due to 'climate' ..classic! LOL!

 

I haven't worked at a job that I could take public transit to since 2008 and to carpool with a coworker can be tricky since if things come up at work, we can't all work the exact same hours every day.

 

We praise the smarter not harder approach still correct? Can you blame someone for hating leaving their house for a 1.5hr each way bumper to bumper commute, to sit in a noisy office cubicle that's half the space of their quiet personal office, only to have all discussions done over Microsoft Teams, which could of been done from home?

There is no reason for a good many folks to go back into the office.

 

Around here, all the refineries are running at max all the time. There are some intricacies about our area that make fuel supply somewhat unique but if you don't produce it, someone else will.

 

Went all-in in April of '20 with energy and shale producer stock. These were producers that went from $15 share prices to 30 cents and less.

And I've never been much for risk or investment; watching oil at -$42 a barrel that late April was terrifying.
Since then? Life changing wealth. Still haven't cashed out, but hope to soon.

 

You know he plans on laying off 10% of his workforce due to his unsettled feeling if the near future...yeah?

 

There are exceptions; hell, I taught distance education long before covid. Still much preferred the classroom environment.
Many do the bare minimum to garner max wage and Musk knows this all too well.

Time to get back to work.

 

I was wondering if he was using teleworking as an excuse to just trim the fat.

I did see that. Didn't take it at face value though.

 

We shall see,

Honestly I could see that 10% trimmed by people not wanting to come back, followed by, oh shit please give me my job back.

Or not.

We cant forecast the future 100%.

 

I only know my small bubble. Where I work we do more and at times even for free due to the ease of jumping on at 8pm to finish up a work thing our daily schedule didn't allow for.

To each their own. But the broad brush stroke portrail is what I push back on.

EDIT #1 - Congrats on the investment BTW. That Rocks!

EDIT #2 - Did you make that investment in your PJs from home? And since you didn't really do anything but click a button, does it count as work? Or lazy income?

^ good natured sarcasm just to make a point. I am truly happy your risk will be rewarded

 

gotta wonder if semi conductor limiting supply issues are his main reason for that. They have to be having even more issues than gas engine production

 

It's a great time to be debt-free and just watching the shit show play out. Many lagging indicators haven't even caught up yet ... but all signs point to being deep in the red. Folks who cashed out and relocated with remote jobs during the 'great sickness' had better hope those jobs are recession-proof as many employers will be making tough decisions as things continue to unravel.

 

Understood, but it sure doesn’t seem to be a priority for anyone.

My comments weren’t directed at anyone specifically.

 

Eh, idk, 50/50 IMO.

Production is production, he doesnt specify its line related. Development and SW/programming is the other thing. IMO Tesla is a SW company. I think the 10% is related to just thinning the heard for bottom line.

That's my 2 cents.

 

Oil storage levels affect price more than refinery capacity. Just pre Covid the problem was finding a place to store crude. All the storage was at capacity. That's why the oil traders intentently study levels at major storage hubs like Cushing, OK.

 

Government does not have to worry about spending money on infrastructure. We all pay for it and when they need more they just raise our taxes. Governments are not run efficiently because of this.

 

I'm glad it worked out for you. If you bought at the bottom your timing was perfect. For most that own energy ETF's or stocks the 5 year gains have been pretty modest.

 

Crap... I'm screwed!!!!! I'm going to have to drive my more economical '21 Tundra now in lieu of my less economical '08 Tundra just to ride this out...

 

I'm retired! I say that tongue-in-cheek, as we have livestock and acreage and that bodes poorly for kicking the feet up!

Fwiw, thanks for the kind words, I'm 58 and old school at heart. You hung in there with my comments and that's appreciated.

 

I agree that it takes a lot to change behavior, but I think we’re we’re past that point. People might be slower to change how they get to and from work, but they are changing driving habits, at least as it pertains to non-essential trips and coming vacation plans. I’ve seen at least a few forum members trade in their Tundras (or at least park them) in favor of a more efficient commuter. Even if day-to-day behavior is slow to change, people will change how they vote. Politics of how and why we got here aside, it’s usually not very pretty for the incumbent.

Knowing that none of us can predict the future, I think he’s just getting ahead of what seems to be inevitable across the board. Lots of companies are going to be tightening up. Employees who have the option to work from home need to consider other factors.

Do you want to be the detached, disconnected guy who works from home, or the guy who takes the effort to come into the office, works visibly, putting his productivity out there for all to see? The second guy has additional opportunities the first does not. Maybe you get to do lunch with your boss or jump in on a round of golf with higher-ups when someone bails. Who knows? The point is, there are relationships to be made and potential opportunities afforded to those who show up.

If I need my job, and if I think cuts are coming in the near future, I’m going to be the second guy.

 

As someone who went to the office everyday from 7 till 6 I'm jealous of those that get to work from home now. I'm glad people are calling bullshit on that grind.

BTW, because I was at the office 11 hours a day didn't mean I didn't also sometimes work from home some evenings and weekends. I'm not complaining, just sayin...

 

@Terndrerrr no arguement here my friend