Ummm, Price Collapse?

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Toyota-Tundra-d313

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/sto...-2020-a-potential-sign-of-trouble-11648070643

 

Just wait...

 

Wall Street has begun to see more borrowers with blemished credit fall months behind on their subprime auto loans, a potential sign of cracks emerging in consumer credit as the Federal Reserve moves to fight inflation.

This sounds like cracks were already there but banks threw money in them hoping they wouldn’t get bigger but they did

 

It’s gonna get a LOT uglier before it gets any better.

Love your handle, @PayItOff428. I did just that a few weeks ago.

 

Good for you man! I bet it feels good because I know it feels good.

 

Recession is here in some sectors. The rest will be following soon. Hope you are preparing now.

 

This’ll be a weird one…

Wages are inflated, demand and prices still seem high, supply is still pretty low, and it seems like national morale is down.


I think you’re right; we are poised for a recession, but when wages and demand still outpace supply, it’s going to delay.

Supply is just starting to come back.

I’m eatin’ popcorn.

 

Agreed. I’ve read a lot of interesting stuff with respect to the economy. The major gist of what I’ve recently read is a somewhat short lived recession. Nothing remotely close to 2008.

Hard to say. My truck will be paid off in a year. Our Honda is paid off. Our travel trailer is too. Time to double down on the house after refinancing a couple years ago.

 

My 08 has 117k miles. I’ve pretty much decided I’ll 1) drive it into the ground and then die or 2) buy a 2018ish model in 2030 or so. When or if the CRV shuts the bed we’ll probably buy an EV. Option 1 remains on the table for that as well.

 

I wanna say I feel bad for those that bought or are still buying at or above MSRP, but I am not. Those that love to switch up every few years will have a big surprise coming. Not to mention paying MSRP is a fools move. When my lease is up, I will be buying it out. Also I am on the other side. Finance a depreciating item, keep the money on your side.

 

It is a depreciating asset so...

 

Hoping this will let the P-car market calm down and let me finally buy one. But at the same time chip shortages and materials shortages are going to last a while for new vehicles, so it'll be interesting to see how this goes. Based on that data for the Tundra i'm not too worried about our trucks, but for the people that dramatically overpaid, well, told ya so.

 

Article I read said bottom is coming between Oct 22-Oct 23. Dealers are supposedly already pricing that in when buying your trade in.

 

The used car bubble needs to burst. Going to hurt a lot of folks but these ridiculous prices should never have happened.

 

It won't burst until supply chain resolves itself. Used car market relies on the new car market.

 

This. As soon as those chips are no longer in short supply there is going to be an enormous amount of new cars on the lots. The bottom may fall out at that point

 

Yep. As long as there's material shortages in supply chain, the supply for new cars will be down. Leading to inflated prices. Causing high demand and low supply for used cars.

When/if shortages clear up, the market will go back similarly to what it was a few years ago.

 

Its going to take YEARS. I work in the electronic manufacturing sector, and everyone realizes how much more money can be made by keeping supply a little low to keep people scrambling, paying more and being forced to design in other components that are similar, which costs money. Really the only fix here is going to be domestic manufacturing, which is again, years away.

Edit: on the plus side, a 2x4x8 has dropped to 6 bucks overnight from 6.50.

 

You're not wrong. I don't expect to see anything to go back to normal for quite some time. We may start to see everything easing out some but it wont happen overnight. Or Overmonth either.

 

Stagflation. Inflation can have 2 drivers: printing excess money and/or decreased supply. We are experiencing both at the same time as we see many economic sectors slowing down. The Fed has been printing ridiculous amounts of money since 2008.

we have a debt crisis that we never addressed. In the 08 crash, the elites decided better to inflate asset prices than realize losses.

 

But but but when I have more monies in my pocket, I can buy more things! Problem solved!

 

Following.... Curious what everyone's thoughts are on this topic. You guys are much smarter than I.

 

This isn’t getting corrected any time this year. . Ford, stopped taking a orders on f150s last month and f250s 2 months ago. GM is still shipping trucks without top features, some of which won’t be retrofitted. Toyota sales are down due to the global cut.

but I hope the ev market stays hot. Trying to list my f150 for 25-30k margin.

 

Ha ha, half full baby! I agree with your take on manufacturing. Why make more and sell for less when you can make less and sell for more! If I owned a business that’s what I would do because I wouldn’t own it if I didn’t.

 

Inventory also costs companies money to hold too.

 

The bravado from manufacturers about long term build to order business models without steep discounts will disappear soon and they’ll be back to paying people
To buy cars to keep the doors open

 

Interesting to see. I plan on keeping mine for as long as possible, biggest thing is I might need 4x4 soon(and I already have a tacoma picked out if I ever need to go that route).

Mine will effectively paid off(last payment coming out as I type this). Hard to justify a different car compared with one that is paid off.

 

Rising interest rates will cool the demand side as well as the continued production catching up. China also opened their doors again this week, ending their 65 day lockdown.

The end of 22 will look a lot different IMO.

Car loan defaults are also up 4.15%. As prices rise demand cools. Inflation right now is at unprecedented levels. The rampant run up of stocks, crypto, nft's, cars, and boats is over. Housing prices might stay in tact for most localities.

Stack your cash today. Buy everything you want when we hit bottom.

 

Just checked car gurus here in Canada. 2021 CrewMax SR5 TRD Off Road 4x4 with 18.000KMS (11,100miles) is listed for $66,500.

The 2022 CrewMax SR5 TRD Off Road 4x4 that I'm buying brand new is $57,800 or so.