2022 Tundra

Gonna be devil's advocate here....

With significantly lower inventories, these dealers are moving less metal, meaning per unit profit needs to be increased to keep the bills paid. I don't think it justifies $10k ADM on a Toyota, but it wouldn't surprise me if they need to make 3x more profit than usual in this economy. Look at some of these dealers lots, sometimes there's just a few cars available.

I do agree ADM is ridiculous these days, and I don't get why people would pay $5-10k ADM for a Hyundai. I mean, what makes people so desperate? Do/did they not have a serviceable vehicle prior to the urgent need for a brand new vehicle? It's bad here because any ADM you agree to includes 10-11% tax on the ADM as well as the vehicle, so a $10k ADM is actually $11,000.

I could see that some dealers may NEED as much as $1k ADM to keep the books in the black, but the $5-10k grabs are mostly because people are willing to pay it. And I'd bet most of them don't actually "NEED" a new vehicle, it's an urge they can't suppress.

 

Carlyle Group sold its remaining shares in 2014. They are an investment group and not interested in manufacturing.

 

$5k ADM for Pro 4R’s has been very common in a lot of markets for a couple years now. $10K during a time of prolonged low/no inventory isn’t surprising.

To be honest, I’m surprised it’s that low when so many folks are paying over new MSRP prices for used vehicles.

 

Well said!

 

So, dealers are going to gouge people, while they can, for a new vehicle. Nice! Bad time to total a your current ride.

 

Saw this yesterday - https://www.vwvortex.com/threads/are-these-camod-trucks-the-new-tundra.9482388/

Dual exhaust tips

 

Man, don't make it sound so bad. I highly doubt most new vehicle sales are because of car accidents.
Most totaled cars are older models, people aren't totaling $5k car then going to a new car dealer and buying a $50k Hyundai

 

Based on what? It's impossible to get in a crash in a new vehicle?

 

This for sure. Somewhere somebody decided since new cars are harder to get we will gouge the used customer even more to make up for it. Not this guy. I do expect the new tundras to be a bit more but not that much more. Maybe that’s just me hoping though. Like you said, it will put many people out of the market. I kinda see this situation like this. If all dealers would get together and say no to buying used cars from auctions or however they get them at “market adjusted rates” then things would return to normal. Hasn’t happened yet but here’s hoping they will. I have been in the market for a tundra for quite some time and haven’t pulled the trigger due to the current pricing.

 

I just pulled it out of my ass?

According to the insurance industry:
Are older vehicles totaled more often?
Comprehensive: Not surprisingly, older vehicles are more likely to be totaled. Just 2% of vehicles newer than four years old were declared a total loss, compared with 13% for vehicles older than eight years.

Collision: For the claim years of 2010, 2014 and 2018 combined, 34% of collision claims for vehicles older than eight years resulted in a total loss, compared to only 15% of those with vehicles four to eight years old and 8% with vehicles newer than four years.

Property damage liability: For all claim years combined, 26% of property damage liability claims for vehicles older than eight years old resulted in a total loss, compared with only 6% of those with vehicles four to eight years old and 3% with vehicles newer than four years.

 

Tried to pre-order at two dealerships and got turned down at both, so I found a 2021 tacoma TRD OR DCLB but the dealership wants 4700 over MSRP which would be near 50k out the door. I'm going to hold off until the prices go back down because there is no way I will pay over.

 

There is no logic. You’re witnessing what morons do when they simply must have the new shiny object.

 

It would make a little sense if it was the Shiney new object, but it's a truck that has been around for 14 years with a few changes. Honestly I think people like to brag about how much they "had" to pay for their new truck. It's a status symbol for them.

 

Maybe. I was implying shiny new object, as in shiny and new to them.

Either way morons are going to moron.

All this extra stimulus money floating around and evidently lot’s of people not using it to pay their rent. I guess they’re using it to buy stupid shit they don’t need instead. Pushing up that demand curve, giving the dumb dumbs the extra money to pay those higher prices, and therefore sustaining the climb in the price curve relative to supply and demand.

I am going to be chuckling when this house of cards comes crashing down. Just imagine what happens if the prime interest rate gets bumped up 2-3 full points, and a good rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage is 5% again, with auto loans at 7%. Prices will come crashing back down as the loans for things at realistic rates will be unserviceable at the current prices.

It’s coming folks, build your war chest and keep your powder dry. When we get that correction to the markets there’s gonna be deals to be had.

 

Didn’t say that. But, if you desperately need a vehicle what do you do.

 

I agree, but I highly doubt those legitimately desperate buyers are significant.
I'm going to guess it's people coming out of a lease who don't want to keep that vehicle, or people who just must by new every few years, and money just doesn't matter much. I know lots of people who have very little concern for money. And I can see why, some of us look "rich on paper" for example my house I bought in 2012 for $420k is now worth $1.05m, lots of people think they're rich in my situation (I'm still anxious about money anyway, it's not real if it's not in my pocket)

My neighbor just bought 2 Platinum F150s, new, one for his Seattle home, and another for his Utah home. He says he makes it work through his business, but he paid ADM on both. F150s are in tight supply.

 

Yeah tons of equity in your home of primary residence from market gains are only real wealth when you sell the place. Then you still have to live somewhere, and unless that somewhere is a property you already own, or you’re downsizing, relocating to a much less pricey area etc you’re just making a lateral move.

 

I am patiently waiting for this correction and buy a couple year old wakeboard boat. The inventory is scarce and those that are available are crazy pricey.

 

I’m waiting patiently to buy a vacation home.

 

I'm just commenting on the poor guy, or gal, that is in desperate need of a vehicle. You're hosed right now.

 

Those guys and gals will be taking it in the shorts for sure.

 

The next three months or so until the full release of the 2022's is going to be a real roller coaster. Shortly thereafter hyperinflation will probably set in and we will all be on yet another adventure ride. Capitalism at its not so finest. I have my '21 Tundra with a 10 year / 125k Toyota platinum warranty and will be set indefinitely. Paid MSRP for it but got on trade 1250 less for my TRD Pro w/ 36k on it then what I paid for it new. Stupid is as stupid does definitely drives the US auto markets.

 

Simple supply and demand

 

A week or two ago we could have taken a tour and taken pics with hidden cameras?

 

Inflation is not specific to a form of government. Every nation in the world is struggling right now

 

10yr/125k warranty? This is one the most dependable truck built. I’m sure your friends at the Toyota dealer love you.

 

unless the time diff between japan and usa is an indicator. they are +9 hrs ahead of the usa.

but this is a huge stretch to justify a sunday press release, which is very uncommon.

 

I agree. Since the truck is built in the US for the North American market, it seems unlikely to me that their press release timing would be at a time that's convenient in Japan.

 

Things can still go wrong. There seems to be a thread a week or so where someone has an issue and the suggestions are go to the dealer. These issues don’t stop at 3yr/36k.

 

Never said it was, just stating most likely probabilities of our economic future.