Acquiring a new 2021 Tundra in these times?

Dump it

 

In theory, yes, should come down.

In reality, it's hard to come down on prices when inflation is on the rise, scrap metal that's fit for recycle had gone up 98% from Jan to March, a new production plant costs had skyrocketed in last 12 months in costs, the Corolla plant in Mexico I think was $1bn back in 2015, I believe the retooling at San Antonio is hitting that mark already, factor in the inflation of other things and wages, it's unlikely to come down.

OP, last of 3rd gen production will be October, possibly end of September, delivery of 2022s will begin mid November, 4th gen initial productions will be mostly higher trims, so don't expect any discount at all, and it'll be more expensive than 3rd gen by at least 5-6% on MSRP, the last runs on the 3rd gen seem to focus mostly on lower trims so dealers can stock them (whatever stocking means now) until 2022 arrives.

Chip shortage is still a thing, I've lost count how many plants are idling this month or work stoppage days, but its a lot, GM's Kansas plant hasn't come back online since Feb.

So buy what you are willing to pay, its possible prices will come down but it's unlikely just because from supply side, we don't see a quick solution, and by quick we mean 12 months time.

 

I really don’t get the “bubble” people out there walking around - thinking prices are gonna crash in a month/quarter/year. These are TRUCKS we are talking about people - not Doggecoin !!

The market is high right now. It happens and values are up realistically 25-30% above “typical” so your 30k truck now pushes 40. Just like housing - it all comes down to supply/demand and ease of finance and cost of money to borrowers. Just like housing in the worst of times a highly desirable property will still be worth more than rough and even in the best of times buyers will opt to go with new over used if the price is the same and both are available- so used has to have some compensating factor to be worth the same (more features, better location, more desirable).

If you bought and worst case lose 30% (realistic if you buy poorly and sell at fire sale prices) - you lose 9k on a 30k purchase (average used price today) - it sucks, but 9k is not financially devastating to most working adults) - more realistic is 15-20%.

If your saying your car is worth 40k now and will be worth 20k end of year - that’s a loss of 50% in value and tells me one of 2 things - either a your wrong about the future or b it’s not a 40k vehicle now. Values have went up 30-40% on “in demand” vehicles which causes inflation down the food chain for other vehicles. But nothing doubled in price overnight (new or used) and nothing will fall in value by half in the next year either.

Finally - the 2022s will be great and kill 2021 resale because of all the new tech/comforts argument. Sounds great on paper - but again - these are TRUCKS. The typical truck buyer doesn’t value tech like your typical Tesla buyer does. Actually most are the opposite - they prefer proven over newer. So expect to them to jump ship and embrace new tech is overly optimistic in my opinion. Buyers will overpay for simplicity - it’s proven. If tech sold trucks alone - then Ram would hold a 85% market share and wouldn’t need to offer any incentives. The fact they are #3 and regularly offer 15% off and financing incentives to maintain that ranking shows how far tech will carry you alone.

 

Cars.com show 85 Tundra in my area with few discounted 3k off MSRP

 

Craigslist.com shows a 2021 Pro offered for delivery anywhere in the US at no charge for $8,650 American dollars

Seems the owner had some unfortunate accident and must now sell cheeply to pay for an operation of some sort. Unfortunately the accident happened while on vacation in Nigeria and the local hospital there will not accept his health insurance and directed him to wire the cost of the operation directly -it cost the exact amount that is why the low asking prices.

Point being - don’t believe everything you see online. LOTS of places say they are giving you a discount of 3-4 or 5k…end of the day, they are above what a good dealer might ask using MSRP.

I had a Ram dealer offer me 3k off any price I could find online. I took them my best offer - and sure enough they would beat it by 3k.. provided I bought their “prep package” for $3699 - got me nitrogen in the tires, rear window tint and free car washes every time I returned for service for life. I laughed and passed - said beat my best or I go elsewhere- they bent, slightly - offered $3500 if I bought the package - I left.

Keep in mind dealer fees and add on’s are uncapped in some markets - for example the difference between a dealer on the NC side of the line and VA can be a grand higher - with the same ask - thanks to dealer fees.

Some dealers will do whatever they need to to generate a lead or get an ass in the showroom. Posting fake inventory or non existent discounts isn’t anything new and certainly didn’t decrease this year.

Cars.com is one of the worst offenders - they actually encourage this as they are paid per click - so they help dealers cheat SEO to get their listings on top and to stand out price wise.

 

Let me know if I'm thinking correctly about this. I've put a deposit down for a 2021 trd pro CM. paying msrp with a bed liner being the only thing added to the truck (54000ish msrp) I have a 2018 tacoma and I'm getting 36k trade in that's literally what I paid for the truck in 2018. I can't see anything bad with this? As I see it the pro's have mostly sold close to msrp regardless of the market. Now if I were to buy a limited that would normally be discounted in a normal market that would be different. Please critique my thoughts before my truck arrives.

 

Sounds good to me.

Again - every vehicle is different.

It’s not unreasonable to me that someone is paying what a 2018 sold for new - provided its clean, has reasonable or low mileage and is otherwise going to sell quickly.

Likewise a Pro at MSRP to me is a fair deal. I mean seriously look at what 55k gets you from Toyota and then look at what a Raptor/TRX run….

Ram Rebel at 55 is the closest competitor to me - or a Chevy TrailBoss - I think the Tundra stacks up well to either with a trade off of tech for reliability. Long term resale the Tundra will likely do better than either of these 2.

Any truck that’s 4x4, clean and low mileage is gonna command a premium in most any market - just supply/demand. Always someone who wants to save a few bucks over new and owners who take that kind of care of their vehicles as a whole don’t let them go as frequently as there are buyers seeking them out.

 

It’s a financial game, if u pay cash that’s a good deal, if you pay off the old truck and have to do a loan again that’s a bad deal

 

Kinda have to disagree a bit. Prices of trucks, vehicles in general, have never been like this across the board. I am at the dealer now and I saw a 19 SR5 for $50.3k. That is ridiculous and the market will stabilize. When the person that buys that truck and market comes back down they will be 30-40-50% upside down. That is a $36-38k truck OTD here in my location.

 

I got my sr5 for 42k in Cali

 

I am so glad I leased when I did. 2020 Tundra SR5 $380/m 12k/36. Dealers and all these whacked people can take those prices and shove it. But then again some people have more money than brains and there’s a sucker born everyday.

 

Why is a loan bad? Not being a smart ass

 

Its not bad as long as you got good interest rate.

 

Its very unreasonable. Think about it. Why would you pay for something used what it costed new considering it a depression asset. Makes no financial sense. Sorry to say it but your thinking is what keep this problem going. If people would stop buying at these price they have to come down. People are getting taken for a bad ride.

 

The dealers are selling every one they can get their hands on... Find a dealer who will look down the road at their allocation to find one that you want. MSRP is a good deal when you consider used ones are going for over what people paid for them.

 

MSRP is the most anyone should shell out for a Pro especially with 2022 otw.

 

Cause everyone want to see what’s the new pro gonna offer…
Hope they put the crawl mode in it

 

It’s good way to gauge “inventory” in a particular area, although most of them are “in transit”.
Markup from dealer are unavoidable even pre-pandemic, just walk away.

 

Why would someone pay more for something used than it cost new….it’s called INFLATION.

If you have a home over 30 years old - I can guarantee you in 99.8% of the cases - the cost new was less than you’d sell for today (assuming it didn’t have wheels on it at some point in its life - and maybe even then)

It’s not about what it cost THEN - it’s about what a substitute would cost NOW and making the appropriate adjustments.

This is not an opinion - it’s a basic theory of economics.

Price paid is irrelevant to value in the future - good and bad.

 

I suspect MSRP is as good as it's going to get for the next few years--at the very least--if being super positive. And I imagine MSRP values are only going to increase with inflation, demand, and this chip mess. Silicon shortages are affecting not just vehicles but all manner of electronics, and this situation isn't going to let up any time soon, imo. Even after 2022's hit, 2021 models are going to trickle into dealerships until inventory is completely dry across the country--however long that takes--and will continue to sell at/above MSRP as there will be buyers who would settle for the older model as inventory for 22's are going to be limited as well. Anyways, that's my take on this situation.

That's why I picked up a new 2021 about 2 weeks ago. Spent many hours doing inventory research by browsing every dealer website and gathering data in my area. In WA, I discovered that most new tundras are being sold with expensive packages and accessories that I didn't need--if they were even in stock by the time I got to the dealer. Originally, I was hunting for a SR5 with only a $1K option (convenience package), but most on this trim level were equipped with $5K or more in options--some even nearing 10K. In the end, I figured that if I'm being forced to spend more than I originally intended, I might as well go up in trim level at a comparable price. The dealer forced all-weather mats and lug locks on me, but combined these amounted to $320--which I wasn't going to fret over. At least I paid MSRP. Can't personally complain considering the impact of this global mess. Hopefully, in a few years, my future self will be thanking my current self for this purchase.

 

Your logic assumes the value of money is constant which as we know is not the case. Just like houses, if there is a limited supply available and the costs to build a new one continue to rise, old home values go up. Same principle applies in our current truck market. Don’t get me started on the used boat market…

 

What about the boat market???

 

I really don't think the prices on new 2021s are going to drop when the 2022s are released. As someone else said, that didn't happen with the Tacomas. I bought a 2015 Tacoma in 2015 because I didn't want the third gen Tacoma but knew I'd want a new one soon. To this day I still see people in the market for a Tacoma advised to look for a "low miles 2015".

I just traded my '18 Tundra DB for a new '21 Tundra CM. Only reason I did it was because I thought within the next couple years I may want a CM for the cab space; I'm a big fan of the current Tundra and afraid I won't like the next gen Tundra as much. So when I saw the exact CM on the lot brand new that I would want, I decided to go for it.

The dealer gave me a pretty good price on my '18 trade, about $1500 under what I paid for it new. I forget what their price was on the new '21, but it was pretty near sticker. They wouldn't budge on it. They know if I don't buy it, someone else will. But the sales guy seemed very happy to be getting a trade, something else he can sell. It's on their website now, they're asking a little over $6k more than what they gave me for it.

 

I have many close friends that work at southeast toyota in commerce ga which is where all of the port installed options and packages are completed for the southeast. They all have said I was crazy thinking that the 2022 tundra line up would be at full production by the end of the year. That being said if these prices make you uncomfortable you will not be happily in a 22 until this time next year.

 

You made a wise decision on the 2015 tacoma! The 3rd gen looks nice, but has the power of a kids go-cart! And that's with a 6sp manual I couldn't imagine it with the auto hunting for gears like everyone complains about.

 

Send that link! I am jumping on that!

 

If you have a decent v-drive wake/ski/surf boat between MY 2005-2017 you can probably sell it near or over the original purchase price. People freaking out here about people overpaying for trucks should head over to onlyinboards.com and watch the insanity unfold. Just saw a 2006 Malibu with the notorious hammerhead motor sell for $70k.

 

True, but a house for the most part always goes up in value. Buying a used truck for new price is a sure way to lose money. It will come down, guaranteed. I was also debating on selling my boat. That’s another crazy market. Sell high now and wait for prices to drop. Besides I am not using it but 2-4 times a year. Marinas are crazy here in Miami.

 

I am assuming that’s a lot of money for that boat.