Market, Energy, and Inflation posture (Not Political).

Alberta saw growth in our economy when minimum wage was increased because all of a sudden people making minimum wage can actually go out to eat or take in a movie or other forms of entertainment from time to time.

 

The counter argument is that overtime that buying power will quickly be eroded.

raising minimum wage is a temporary boost. Restaurants will have to raise prices to make up for their increased labor cost. Increased availability of money for the same sized basket of goods = higher prices.

@Kimosabe thank you for the more detail. It does make sense. I just spoke with a friend yesterday about his refi. Him and I work for the same company, our LTV is identical. My refi in October took 3 weeks. He just finished his last week, it took 2 months with what seems like a lot more scrutiny. Possibly the loan market is tightening for sure

 

Jeff nailed it. Been finding market ops all day.. but it's definitely a shit storm of ups and downs with tech trumpeting as the chorus is running out of the building.. FALN looks good if she'd just simmer some.

 

I also agree with Jeff. Raising the minimum wage might be positive for some in the short term, but is ALWAYS negative for EVERYONE in the long term. It leads to fewer helper and entry level jobs being offered, and to higher prices as businesses have to adjust to cover it. This song and dance has been repeat ad nauseum but some just have no knowledge of basic economics. The real reason for raised minimum wages is usually to buy votes.

 

Must... resist... soap boxing... but I do 100% agree with you.

 

We've done exceptionally well keeping this clean and factual. Good job guys.

 

Not sure I agree. We have people giving their opinions as if they are economists.

 

I think he meant keeping it non-political.

 

As soon as people start talking about the ramifications of raising minimum wage it's right on the cusp...

 

I think we are going to see some inflation regardless with interest rates as low as they are and with the Fed pumping money into the economy (not just by interest rates). It's always a guessing game on the Feds part when trying to account for the behavior of 331 million people. We could have seen a dramatic drop leading to depression or we could be stuck in a prolonged recession. I'm still not entirely sure we've realized the total effect of the last year when money is being handed out giving short spikes in spending and stimulation of the economy.

 

I'm here to read and learn. I only have 1K in My TD Ameritrade that Pulled from my 401K

 

Isn’t that pretty much what economists do? Look at past trends and make educated predictions based on those trends?

 

Economics is half math and half interpretation/voodoo magic. Consumer confidence isn’t always predictable, but it drives or dives the economy

 

I have a minor in Economics, and I've seen a couple of folks on this thread comment about some type of financial certifications, not to mention about 35 years of watching what works, what doesn't work, and lots of reading what most people find boring. That last part is my own experience, and I don't consider myself the expert here.

It could be, but both major parties have demonstrated their economic illiteracy over the past 50+ years.

With the printing presses at the Treasury burning up due to overuse, I think it wise to keep the majority of savings in just about anything but cash. Cryptos, precious metals, real estate, collectibles, etc. Even if just starting, quality stocks are better than cash. Just pay attention to valuation. Many good stocks are just valued way too high to be good buys right now. However, there are still good buys to be found.

 

@Bakershack thats a good summary.

 

Some valid points Kelly. Anything can be made political if that's then constant lense it's looked through. We were taught about inflation in basic economics. Printing money and leaving the gold standard isn't a party failure, it's a nations failure. Let's keep this discussion going...if Tacoma chats can do it and the moderators are ok with it...let's roll.

I didn't get my shares today... Price didn't drop enough.

 

That's fair. I'm not going to touch that one.

I think if you read finance headlines you will see an equal split of "market fully recovers from pandemic" or "economy has weathered the storm", versus "bear market has yet to come" and "Darker days ahead for U.S. economy." I think anyone can review past trends and chances are will find evidence to support your theory. But, basically it's a guess and half the people will be right and the smart people will have a hedge in place.

 

Good points. I feel like we're in unchartered territory here and nothing is behaving as it should. Despite a recession, home prices exploded last year. The stock market is behaving as if everything is fine. Everyone is trying to predict the unpredictable at this point.

 

The market Always gets better in the long run, sometimes far sooner than one thinks, so stay in the game, time small exits as needed but never sell when the overall market is down, but if you want to help me out, that's when I buy! 45% gains since last March, can't get that at any bank.

Most folks don't need all their money at once, so exiting in Slow fashion over years gets one more options to move up as time goes by and its all Legal, woohoo!

 

I'm curious to see what we see with earnings coming in. I'll be reviewing financials and reports for my portfolio.

I'm curious if there's anything other people are looking at when screening for new buys, and are there any industries that people are looking at right now? I think people have addressed some of these.

I haven't bought much lately because I think most things are over priced, but with the new administration in office it has made me think about their goals and how to align some purchases to coincide with them. The main takeaways I had were in these categories: infrastructure improvements, public lands, green/renewable energy, tech, and chronic.

 

Stay the course and invest in a diversified portfolio but keep cash on hand for a good buy in when the chips are down.

 

Everyone thinks the health of the economy is directly reflected in the markets and in the interest rates. That is only true when the money supply is held fairly constant and the interest rates are not artificially manipulated. The truth is that SO many new dollars have been created that people (mainly rich people and larger organizations) have so much extra cash they are looking for places to put it. With the interest rates held so low artificially - worldwide - and the knowledge that holding all cash is automatically losing money, there is no real alternative other than the stock market. All this extra cash has inflated the market to artificially high levels overall, which is reflected most clearly in the valuations of the equities. Tesla, for instance, is trading at valuations where it will take multiple GENERATIONS to meet those valuations. That said, there ARE good buys in the market, driven primarily by the extremely fast pace of technology. Specifically biotechnology, 5G, and artificial intelligence are areas where we will see VAST improvements and advances over the next 10 years. Investing in quality companies in these sectors is about as good a guarantee as you will ever find in stock market returns. The earnings may or may not be there yet for the microcaps who are really on the cutting edge, but sometimes they are run by people with a strong track record of success and profitability in their previous ventures.

Home prices are actually inline with supply/demand vs. low interest rates. Some areas of the country have higher or lower prices due to local situations. My home county, for instance is very high because a lot of people want to move here. This is being exacerbated by Navy Federal Credit Union moving their headquarters to Pensacola. They've already brought thousands of people in for new jobs, and now they will be bringing over 7,000 MORE new jobs to the area. East Baldwin County, Alabama is less populated so a bunch of those people are buying/building over here rather than in Florida. That is making my search for property much more difficult. Meanwhile, rural areas of Florida are really good buys for those with enough capital to invest in land.

Holding all cash is automatically losing money due to inflation. Not the government reported (artificially low) inflation, but the real inflation you see every day. Many groceries cost significantly more than they did a year ago. And many other things cost a good bit more as well. If you are not getting a decent return on your cash, you may as well be burning it.

Back to the first statement I made here - the health of the U.S. economy is not in good shape. I believe we will see a major shift over the next several years in the world economy. The dollar is on the verge of losing its Reserve Currency status, and with that will come a lot of pain for those who are not prepared. Your wealth - no matter how big or small - MUST be in assets not tied to the dollar. As I have stated before, this includes cryptos, commodities (including precious metals), collectibles, and real estate. You don't have to have much to start, unlike in the past, so there is really no excuse not to start.

Personally, I started WAY too late. I'm playing catchup. I hope I can help to convince those younger than I to avoid making the same mistake.

 

You’re convincing me!

 

Still got a few months to contribute to your IRA for the year. That's always a great start.

 

Some good deals today. CE Equity Mutuals. Bought early this morning on a low ball limit... nothing scary 100 shares here, 100 there. Will wait for the post earnings drop as you know damn well it will happen..lol. Tommorow is going to be interesting

 

Man, those Reddit folks and GameStop seem to be having an interesting time... Will be interesting to see how that all shakes out!

 

If you've never been to WallStreetBets it's a ridiculous circle jerk of idiots and I love it. I've been reading it since last January, I'm by no means getting rich but I've had fun making some play money from the market.

 

You mean autists?

 

I was being nice