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Stock Market - Hey Money Guys!

Discussion in 'Stocks, Investments & Finances' started by Trooper2, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:25 PM
    #1
    Trooper2

    Trooper2 [OP] Premium Lone Star Member / SSEM #13

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    Watching the stock market this week has not been fun.

    Question to the Money Guys: Is it too late to move money from stocks to bonds/money markets in my 401K?

    I feel like the market has been inflated for a while and my 401K has been booming. Actually thought of moving some funds around last week but didn't.

    What are the money guys doing?
     
  2. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:42 PM
    #2
    Green Thunder

    Green Thunder Smooth in the Cruise

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    Not moving anything...I'm a long term investor, not a day trader. The money has already been lost and the market will recover.
     
  3. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:43 PM
    #3
    Sas

    Sas Humor is everywhere

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    Lost track after #1.
    Not a pro trader by any means, but it seems like the market has been waiting to exhale for a while now. I feel it's just using the CV to take some profits, set up for better prices and is a short-term thing. I rarely sell any of my long-term holdings TBH.
     
    Green Thunder and Trooper2[OP] like this.
  4. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:44 PM
    #4
    teedubbya

    teedubbya I like fat booty

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    Not really sure your question.

    stocks are tanking right now due to coronavirus bullshit. Now is a good time to buy more.
     
    Rica25 and Green Thunder like this.
  5. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:46 PM
    #5
    Trooper2

    Trooper2 [OP] Premium Lone Star Member / SSEM #13

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    Portfolio is about 75% stocks. Those funds are losing value and could continue to do so. I was just considering moving some of that value to lower risk funds, and keep buying of course.
     
    Rica25 likes this.
  6. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:48 PM
    #6
    Johnsonman

    Johnsonman New Member

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    I turned 1/4 of equities in dec into cash, now I'm shopping for stock bargains, there are lots and will be more.

    Sure it will all come back, unless you're planning on retiring and pulling all your monies out very soon, I'd stay put.

    Remember you only lose money when you sell....take a Deep breath...
     
    Terndrerrr and Trooper2[OP] like this.
  7. Feb 27, 2020 at 5:51 PM
    #7
    Trooper2

    Trooper2 [OP] Premium Lone Star Member / SSEM #13

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    12ish years till retirement. That should be enough time for a few more highs I guess..... Inhale - Exhale, Breathing - LOL
     
    Sas likes this.
  8. Feb 27, 2020 at 6:02 PM
    #8
    teedubbya

    teedubbya I like fat booty

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    gotcha. I don’t know how old you are, but I’d hold out. Things should pop back up...unless corona virus kills us all. Then what good is money???
     
    Trooper2[QUOTED][OP] likes this.
  9. Mar 3, 2020 at 6:42 PM
    #9
    Sas

    Sas Humor is everywhere

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    Lost track after #1.
     
    Trooper2[OP] and Rica25 like this.
  10. May 11, 2022 at 5:13 AM
    #10
    NewImprovedRon

    NewImprovedRon New Old Guy

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    I am retired, in my early 70's, and staying put in my investments. There are really no good safe havens in investing right now. Equities are sucking wind right now and interest rates are on their way up driving down bond yields. Think of it as a rough spring-time storm that will eventually clear and bring better times. No sense in turning paper losses into actual losses unless you just have to have the money right now.
     
    tundrasportinMA likes this.
  11. May 11, 2022 at 7:34 AM
    #11
    Audiolust

    Audiolust New Member

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    This post is originally from 2020, just FYI. I’ve been in the industry since 2011, currently I am a portfolio and strategy analyst at one of the Big 4. Obligatory I’m not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice, you should do your own research and come to your own conclusions.

    This is not a simple answer with too many variables currently. You'll hear plenty of talking heads mention "The perfect storm," "Uncharted Territory." These are all correct, but they never go into detail in short articles and TV segments, its just too vast and everyone has a different opinion of what the pieces may do. What most analyst will agree on is the "can" has always been kicked down the road. Now we're seeing that group divide into; the can, can still be kicked. Or. The can is in the corner/cliff.

    In my opinion, chickens are coming home to roost of decades of failed monetary policy. I agree with a part in the above post, there are no safe havens right now. You’re going to have to pick a Devil.

    Over a decade of 0% interest rates, COVID stimmies, and the FED propping up markets have created artificial (fake, fraudulent) values at astronomical levels. Without getting incredibly technical, most index companies have posted profits due to stock buybacks fueled by low rates and not actual growth. There are also a lot of companies that have used this tactic to prevent their companies from going under and roll their unserviceable debt forward, also referred to as "Zombie Companies" since the great financial crises.

    If you thought the DOT COM crash was big, multiply it. If you thought the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) was big, multiply it.

    The GFC was fueled by (more or less) one large bubble, housing. Now look at the big ones we have currently.

    Home Price Index is double GFC:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

    Auto Loans are 1.5x GFC:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MVLOAS

    Student Loans have tripled GFC:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SLOAS

    Credit Card have nearly tripled GFC:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

    So where does this put us? Holistically you have to look at what the FED has done historically. They have created, and popped every market bubble with their monetary policies. One bubble inflates the next, like a merry go round. I'm of the opinion we are at the cliff. There are only two options left.

    1. Debt based systems (like ours) only works with growth.

    Our growth has been fueled by debt, more or less. We are a consumer nation, we outsourced production long ago. Our growth is the issuance of more debt. The problem with that is that it only works for so long, the debt at a point has to go exponential to keep working. The USD is a world reserve currency and we have promises to keep for it to stay that way. Although we broke our promise almost immediately after Bretton Woods to have the dollar pegged to gold, nations have put up with it for 50 years. Once we started weaponizing our reserve currency status against Russia (regardless of what you think about the Ukraine War, this was a horrendously short sighted and juvenile move of the Biden administration) and freezing assets of a country, it has solidified and set in motion events that will have enormous second and third order effects.

    Legitimate challengers to the dollars reserve status are becoming material. "Talks" of allowing any currency other that the dollar to buy barrels of oil are progressing seriously. You could only buy crude with USD, its has the moniker of the "Petrodollar," and is one of the main reasons the dollar has kept its foothold as a reserve currency. Now Saud is in serious talks of accepting the Yuan as a currency of buying oil. HUGE deal. In addition you BRICS (https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/27/brics-members-summit-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa/) setting up deeper ties to reduce geopolitical dependence on the USA because of the weaponized use of the USD. This in turn, takes away from our ability to grow our debt from some of the largest emerging market debt consumers.

    Long story short, option 1: This is a surface level insight to the current dollar problems. We have reached the point of exponential debt growth, we are going to have to print to the moon to keep this party going. Leaving money in cash (safe haven) would be crushed here. Your dollar today is worth less the next, and the next. Inflation as it sits today (CPI is at ~9%, but really its more like 15% [It's known as the CPLie in some circles, fudging numbers), cuts your purchasing power in half, in 5 years. Faster if you see more Trillion dollar stimmies come out.

    2. Let it crash. In my opinion, it will be the worst financial crises by order of magnitudes. It will be a reserve currency collapse. A complete world system reset. Many dont know but our first shock actually started in September 2019 when the REPO market froze. And the FED stepped in and started injecting money to prop up its house of cards. The FED is currently doing what it had done in 2019 before the REPO freeze, starting to tighten and remove these money injections, raise rates. The big difference here is they no longer have options, inflation is running rampant, they have to raise rates. They can raise rates (which will in turn pop all of those bubbles listed above), and throw us into at least a recession. The problem has gotten so complex to manage a correction into a recession it'll be like walking a high-wire being followed by hornets. Doable, sure. Likely, no. It should have been done and cleaned up in 2001 or 2008 when we still have a rate buffer to use. We dont now. Additionally e.v.e.r.y.t.i.m.e, the FED folds and rescues markets, injects money, which means more inflation for us.


    TLDR: There isnt a safe haven right now.

    Me personally (not financial advice), have not been invested since Jan of 2020. The writing was on the wall after Sept 2019. Sure I missed the boat on ~6 Trillion of stimulus injections. The chances of that happening were so outlandish for the times, even with COVID. But we also bought a house at 2.95%, paid off cars, bought wood, tools and supplies for renovations and other durable goods that have since gone up 30-40%. We own real precious metals. We're on deck to hopefully pick up some land with cash in the correction and not pay 8% for a loan if the timing is right. Otherwise its going into more precious metals.

    Most people dont have that luxury, youre invested and now have the risk of taking gains on liquidations.

    You're going to have to chose what's best for you. Consult a tax professional. Make a pros and cons list of BIG expenses. Need a new HVAC? Probably not a bad idea to pay the taxes on gains and put it in before the price doubles to buy it and get it installed. 15% on gains vs. a 30% increase in price of materials still puts you ahead.

    A major shock is coming, its either going to be destruction of the dollar, or destruction of your investments. It's going to be a shit sandwich we're all going to have to eat.

    (Again this is my view of the data that is out there. Its all interpretation of the events that are unfolding. I encourage you to seek out information and educate yourself on these events from anywhere but the mainstream media when it comes to financial markets)
     
  12. May 11, 2022 at 7:49 AM
    #12
    Johnsonman

    Johnsonman New Member

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    I say the future is electrified transportation and both Ford and GM are really cheap right now with nothing but upside. I also like AMD more and more. This is a wonderful time to be alive witnessing so much change!!
     
  13. May 11, 2022 at 7:57 PM
    #13
    Trooper2

    Trooper2 [OP] Premium Lone Star Member / SSEM #13

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    That is a lot of info there. Have heard or read some of the same stuff you shared.
    Thanks for all the info. :thumbsup:
     
    Audiolust[QUOTED] likes this.
  14. May 11, 2022 at 9:32 PM
    #14
    Sunnier

    Sunnier Pity the warrior that slays all his foes

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    Leave it alone and let it ride. I left mine in during the last “recession” and wound up better off for it. Over the course of 20 years in indexed funds, I’ve made ~30% returns. Look at your quarterly statements, but don’t look any time in between. You don’t make money selling at a loss.
     
  15. May 12, 2022 at 1:46 AM
    #15
    MadMaxCanon

    MadMaxCanon New Member

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    Too many, but not enough....
    I'm leaving all my ira/401k stuff alone and continuing course. At 37, I am a long term guy. The time to make money is when there is blood in the streets and boy is that coming.

    I have also been buying material " stuff" and equipment recently because I know shits about to hit the fan and things are going to get scarce and expensive.

    I figure basically, get the essentials for survival now in case but have enough trust in the system that it will correct and come out ahead for me like years passed. If our entire society collapsed it doesn't matter if my money is in my pocket or in an investment, at that point it would be useless paper or a number on a screen that doesn't matter, but the glock in my hand would turn into the best investment ever.
     
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