For entertainment purposes only - Pick an NFL Side or Total you feel confident in

As the title says - for entertainment purposes only - post your 100% most confident lock this week in the NFL - sides (team with the point spread) or total (total points scored by both teams) in the NFL this week.

NFL is traditionally tougher to handicap - it’s the largest US market and there are only a limited number of games so the oddsmakers are focused in with their lines. Of course the oddsmaker role is to gain an “even share” to ensure a profit - not pick the “winner”. So it is possible for truest sharp eyes to consistently win.

As long as this thread stays active - I’ll track my results. 1 pick a week - one side/total a week (-120 or better). A pro used to tell me if your betting more than 1 a week on the NFL - your fooling yourself as rarely does the market present opportunities for multiple “over sites” by the pros. There are a maximum of 32 sides and totals a week (assuming everyone plays - 16 games - so 32 sets of sides and totals to pick from) and unlike college where there are 100 games a week and varying fan bases and followings - NFL games are tracked evenly by the pros.

This week - my pick is Browns/Panthers under 42.

I suspect defense and special teams will be key in this matchup. Both teams were built with a defense first mindset - both feature “new to them” QBs and will likely lean heavier on the run. Points will be at a premium here. It very well could be a long 9-6 type matchup. Spread wise it’s tight (Panthers -1 presently) - so anticipated to be a close game. Yea agree with that consensus and in close games defense is at a premium.

Looking at last year - the Browns:

Went under 10 of 17 matchups
Allowed just over 21 points per game
4th best rushing defense in 2021

The Panthers:

Scored 17.9 PPG
Went under 9 times including a 5-3 record at home
Were ranked 29th in turnovers

 

Last years stats may not be helpful for that game. Panthers have the Browns quarterback from last year starting for them! And the Browns quarterback is suspended and the backup hasn’t even played any meaningful downs for them. Total wildcard in my opinion. The under is reasonable for sure though at 42. I’d go Panthers for the win.

 

Of course last years (or last game for that matter) stats don’t mean everything in any matchup - just like a spin of the roulette wheel - it can vary wildly.

But defensively - the teams are very similar to the previous year - the coaches (and coaching philosophy) are the same and the pre season while not “real” games does give an indication as to what to expect.

And with Jacoby starting for Cleveland and Baker now in Carolina - I think we have a fairly good idea as to how effective the offenses might be and what to expect. Jacoby is going to be a protect the ball first - short routes and run QB - it’s clear no one expects a Brett Farve gunslinger performance out of him. So relatively low scoring / clock burning offense style.

Baker - well he did ok in Cleveland and even looked good at times. Last year was an injury year - but even pre injury he was not lighting up scoreboards in the NFL - just playing above average football. So you put him in a new offense with comparably lesser WRs than in Cleveland (actually he has Hollywood Higgins now too from Cleveland so at least one familiar player) coupled with a solid running back to relive the pressure to pass every down from him - and think you get a very similar offensive production.

Finally - both teams will be run first if they are within a score of each other likely. Unless one suffers a defensive meltdown and gives up a few big plays or simply turns the ball over at the wrong end of the field - it’s going to be a game of field position and strategy in my opinion.

Again - flukes happen and it’s why NO ONE handicaps the NFL 100% - best touts out there probably hit high 50s on their picks (and at -110 you have to win approx 52.5% of your picks to be a winner with the vig). Only way a common man comes up a winner is being both selective and lucky. That’s why I say for entertainment purposes only - no way you can make money doing this without a huge appetite for risk and a bankroll to support you in bad seasons.

Inevitably- “squares” always seem to win the first few weeks of NFL - making small gains most weeks and occasionally having a good week mixed in - at least until week 3 or 4 - then everyone thinks they know the teams well enough to get brave betting the side the public is on - and gets crushed. Sportsbooks know psychology better than you and they know how to lure suckers in early and crush their dreams once they have a fish on the line.

 

Well that went to shit quickly - 3 quarters of exactly what I expected - then boom - Baker teases everyone with his ability to play amazingly well for one quarter exactly and blows the under for me.

Oh well - I’ll have a play this week anyway - will look at the board and see what jumps out. Actually not sure I’d take my Browns this week as touchdown faves - Jets aren’t as bad as they seem. Watch out on the over reaction plays in week 2 - no one wants to start 0-2 - it’s a competitive league and going to be a lot of 1-1’s coming next week no one saw coming.

 

Tough card this week

gimme Bengals -7 in a battle of 0-1s.

TB -2’ is interesting vs Saints - but gotta go Cincinnati here. 7s a lot - but they have the offense to put up big numbers still - Dallas D likely won’t be able to slow them and Dallas O can’t score more than 20.