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Florence

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by Alloutdrs1, Sep 9, 2018.

  1. Sep 9, 2018 at 11:22 AM
    #1
    Alloutdrs1

    Alloutdrs1 [OP] New Member

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    For you southeast members, anyone watching this thing? Thoughts and opinions? Looks like we might be under the gun later this week!
     
    SouthBoundSteve likes this.
  2. Sep 9, 2018 at 11:25 AM
    #2
    Wvmoonshiner

    Wvmoonshiner 2018 Tundra Limited MGM

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    Yeah, watching this closely. Wife is flying into Myrtle Thursday afternoon
     
  3. Sep 9, 2018 at 11:31 AM
    #3
    Blueknights75

    Blueknights75 WHITE is the FASTEST color!!!!!

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    E5D7F8FD-43DC-47A4-9AB8-39EC5C5216CE.jpg

    Be careful!
     
  4. Sep 9, 2018 at 11:34 AM
    #4
    Blueknights75

    Blueknights75 WHITE is the FASTEST color!!!!!

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  5. Sep 9, 2018 at 11:36 AM
    #5
    Blueknights75

    Blueknights75 WHITE is the FASTEST color!!!!!

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  6. Sep 9, 2018 at 11:57 AM
    #6
    SouthBoundSteve

    SouthBoundSteve New and Improved Ron is Right!

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    Where the skies are so blue!
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    Kinda been watch. T.D.’s 8 or 9 also churning too....
     
  7. Sep 9, 2018 at 1:18 PM
    #7
    Alloutdrs1

    Alloutdrs1 [OP] New Member

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    SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTs - The 12z SUNDAY ECMWF has come out and there are SIGNIFICANT developments .

    1 . The european model again holds course with a direct hit Wilmington NC at 955 mb ( more or less) whch would place Florence as strong cat3.

    2 The Operational GFS is deeply flawed and very likely to be wrong and has no support for any other model of any kind. It should be ignored. That being said many of the local TV station will keep talking about it . Even the upgraded new GFS -- the GFS FV3- now agrees with the European model track

    3 From there Florence Tracks NW around the western side of the ridge tracking close to between Raleigh and Charlotte into or over Greensboro NC

    4 Florence moves NW into sw VA then dies . This results in massive rains of 12-25 inches of rain over nw NC north central NC all of southwest Va and all of Shenandoah valley. This will lead to catastrophic flooding for some .. This would include the metro areas of the of Greensboro Winston Salem and High Point .. Wytheville Blacksburg Roanoke Martinsville Danville South Boston Lynchburg Bedford Farmville ... Charlottesville Waynesboro Staunton Lexington Harrisonburg ....and the far southeastern third of West Virginia including areas such as Bluefield Princeton Lewisburg and maybe snowshoe WVA.

    5 From I-95 east rainfall conditions are much different with rainfall amounts generally under under 5" and the winds would not probably reach over 45 miles an hour during the height of event. This would be a major break for all of Hampton Roads ...Richmond metro and northeast and North Carolina as well as the entire Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva

    6 Taken Verbatim 12z Sunday European Model has Florence taking a track a very similar to what we saw with hurricane Fran 1996. The main difference here is that Florence stalls over sw VA. IF this is correct- IF- Florence is NOT going to be that bad for eastern half of VA & northeast NC

    41294022_1857280420985874_60531768322351_91455e26876642404241d971ebc115e6d3cc183d.jpg
    41384872_1857280497652533_23773644023545_ab45dce26e64c901c5d6302498572bb83bc9147e.jpg



    ;
     
    Sunnier and SouthBoundSteve like this.
  8. Sep 9, 2018 at 3:20 PM
    #8
    COMiamiFan

    COMiamiFan Now you know something

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    Y’all be safe out there.
     
    Patriot and SouthBoundSteve like this.
  9. Sep 9, 2018 at 9:18 PM
    #9
    JMB

    JMB Not new, just a little old.

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    Sitting here in hatteras trying to decide whether to bail Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. Either way going to try to kill some puppy drum tomorrow. This evening's high tide came up pretty far. Had to move the truck twice. Three ozs of lead wouldn't hold either.
     
  10. Sep 9, 2018 at 10:10 PM
    #10
    nowayout

    nowayout New Member

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    I have a buddy down in the Outer Banks this week with his family. Hopefully he doesnt try to make it through.
     
  11. Sep 10, 2018 at 4:27 AM
    #11
    Alloutdrs1

    Alloutdrs1 [OP] New Member

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  12. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:23 AM
    #12
    JRTundra

    JRTundra New Member

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    For those in the cone, please stay safe and err on the side of caution when making your decision on whether to stay or leave!
     
  13. Sep 10, 2018 at 7:03 AM
    #13
    Alloutdrs1

    Alloutdrs1 [OP] New Member

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    Problem with leaving is where do you go? I'm in Virginia beach and if I moved inland I would be just as susceptible to inland flooding, I have family in PA but they are getting pounded with rains from remnants of Gordon and have flash flooding as well. They might even get more rain from this storm, pretty crazy out there.
     
    DalTee likes this.
  14. Sep 10, 2018 at 8:11 AM
    #14
    JMB

    JMB Not new, just a little old.

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    They're kicking us out of hatteras at noon
     
  15. Sep 10, 2018 at 2:32 PM
    #15
    Alloutdrs1

    Alloutdrs1 [OP] New Member

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    Saw that today, SC even issued a mandatory evacuation for the whole coastline.
     
    JMB likes this.
  16. Sep 10, 2018 at 4:00 PM
    #16
    DJFaninTN

    DJFaninTN New Member

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    I live on the FL coast and if I lived anywhere near that I'd be hauling ass before sun up on Tuesday. gonna be a bad one I think.
     
    ColoradoTJ likes this.
  17. Sep 10, 2018 at 4:14 PM
    #17
    rons23

    rons23 Get The Led Out!!!

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    It's mandatory evacuation, Hatteras today @ noon, and the rest of us tomorrow. His vacation will be cut short unfortunately, unless he's a property owner.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
    ColoradoTJ and nowayout like this.
  18. Sep 10, 2018 at 4:49 PM
    #18
    JMB

    JMB Not new, just a little old.

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    It took us 3 hours to get from Buxton to new inlet. Standing water on 12 right there. Usually it's 2.5 hours from Frisco to home. Be safe. @rons23 are you leaving?
     
    rons23 and SouthBoundSteve like this.
  19. Sep 10, 2018 at 4:51 PM
    #19
    Spitfire

    Spitfire New Member

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    We have a house on topsail island.. right in the crosshairs.. worried about this one.. fran smoked the island as a cat. 3 island was never the same
     
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  20. Sep 10, 2018 at 4:52 PM
    #20
    Tacogrande

    Tacogrande New Member

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  21. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:08 PM
    #21
    rons23

    rons23 Get The Led Out!!!

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    I have been keeping an eye on florence. When my inlaws were here on the beach, we would have to leave every time, only to put ourselves in a worse position. Gotta do what's best for elders. This time I am staying put Cat 4 or not. My wife is in Fla so she's safe. My mom of course is freaking out telling me to leave. :eek2:
    Nope, gonna ride this one out John. The wife's in fla, so it's just me and Joplin my dog. My mom is giving me hell . I'd rather deal with it here @ home rather than somewhere else. Stay safe out there John and everyone else who's in the path.
     
  22. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:20 PM
    #22
    OBXTundra

    OBXTundra Member

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    Beaufort, NC checking in. Starting to look worse for us. We'll know for sure tomorrow night.

    Have plans to leave home if needed, but for other heavily fortified structures still in the county. My neighbor has been here since '55 and has never left his home and never had more than 1' of water in his yard.

    Inundation maps still show 1' or less water above ground level for my address. Inundation maps are your biggest resource. Winds will be bad, waters the killer.
     
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  23. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:23 PM
    #23
    JMB

    JMB Not new, just a little old.

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    You stay safe too. I'm not sure I'd ride out a 4, parts of Chesapeake are under evacuation order now. My house is 19 feet elevation so we won't be told to leave but flooding from rain might be a problem along with wind. If you decide to bail at the last minute I can give you my address, dogs are welcomed We were supposed to have 5 this weekend but florance changed my daughter's plans.
     
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  24. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:27 PM
    #24
    JMB

    JMB Not new, just a little old.

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    Looks like you're at ground zero right now. Stay safe.
     
    OBXTundra likes this.
  25. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:31 PM
    #25
    rons23

    rons23 Get The Led Out!!!

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    Thanks@JMB, appreciate that
     
  26. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:35 PM
    #26
    OBXTundra

    OBXTundra Member

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    Only about 25 miles south of us, NWS and NOAA are predicting a >10' storm surge, bad news. This thing just keeps shifting up the coast, my fear is that it will land directly on us. Hopefully, for my sake, it carves a path slightly more north and rolls up the coast instead of making landfall.

    Keep an eye on:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
    http://spaghettimodels.com/
     
    JMB likes this.
  27. Sep 10, 2018 at 5:44 PM
    #27
    Jim LE 1301

    Jim LE 1301 Camaro Lover

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    Stay safe.
     
  28. Sep 10, 2018 at 6:04 PM
    #28
    94slowbra

    94slowbra New Member

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    I'm from new orleans, seen my fair share of big storms. Personally I just find a vacation spot we haven't been to and we pack the kids and the truck and head out. Even if you survive the storm itself then you are out of power, which sucks miserably when its 90+ outside.
    So in my opinion of it's coming your way, get out and enjoy so off time with the family
     
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  29. Sep 10, 2018 at 6:06 PM
    #29
    seniramsu

    seniramsu Pro Runnin

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    Heading out of New Bern, tomorrow... Got to keep the little girlies safe. Everything else is replaceable. And we will be driving the tundy so everything valuable is safe!!!
     
  30. Sep 10, 2018 at 6:47 PM
    #30
    OBXTundra

    OBXTundra Member

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    Where are you heading to?

    Multiple hurricanes in the last 10 years have flooded Raleigh and Richmond. Hugo got Charlotte.

    Need to hit high ground in Boone or just go straight to the Smokys.

    I had a lot of buddies that went inland 1-2 hours for Matthew, ended up stranded and powerless in a hotel room with no food for a few days.
     
    rons23 likes this.

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