1st Gen. Lunch Table - General Discussion

Ah shit. I didn't even think of them extending the mortgage duration. Goot lort. 40 year mortgages.

 

Longer terms exist in places like europe and with the financialization of all things, people will not push back as they will have lower monthly payments and my guess is that younger buyers do not really care about the length of the term as long as the value goes up.
Keep the ponzi rollin.

 

As long as real estate stays popular as investment vehicles for hedge fund managers, I don't see it subsiding a great amount. If supply starts to grow again due to material costs coming down and supplies being present, maybe. At a minimum the only thing to hope for would be better selection with fewer people buying.

 

People waiting for an 08 style crash are going to be disappointed me thinks. There are still a shit load of people with money and not enough houses to go around.

 

Just something other than having 3-4 hours to decide on a million plus dollar purchase where you have to bid over asking to have a shot. A cooling. That’s the extent of my hope.

 

Tucson values are up 20% from a year ago. Yeah, I think we will still increase but not at such a large rate.

 

These guys are sorting me out, yeah 15 yr, they reckon they can do it with no early exit fees on a lump sum balloon payment. if you pay a little bit more than 20% they can do better they reckon.

https://www.homesteadfunding.com

 

Just as am FYI I have no connections with any used car dealer / realtor / banker, all three are absolute crooks and the only thing worse is a politician.

 

I agree that politicians are the lowest form of humanity.

But realtors and bankers aren't necessarily nearly as evil. Our realtor is very cool and my wife worked in a credit union for nearly 10 years, so I know a lot of bankers that are decent enough people.
I work in a dealership and will not argue your position on car sales people. They don't get warm, fuzzy receptions in my department.

 

I keep getting calls from developers wanting the 2 acres i bought next door and i’ve been telling em $100k. The way they’re buying up lots and putting up cookie cutter houses, i’d better start telling em $200k.

 

Agreed there are a few good ones out there, but statistically speaking they aren't people who genuinely help out others, I've worked for many banks over a 23 year period, I'll have to disagree on that one I've seen a lot of people done over.
I'm glad you struck it with a good realtor I must have come up against the greedy ones.

 

Yeah, we had some really shitty agents before we found Vickie. We didn't buy with any of those lazy shitbags. But Vickie has been a saint. Don't get me wrong, she makes her money. But she puts in the work.

 

The foreclosures are starting to flow. The projections I had reviewed were higher than what is happening but I expect a peak between July and September. There are still a lot of covid relief mods available so what may have been a flood could become more of a strong trickle. As of right now the rate of liquidation (foreclosures/short sales/deed in lieu) is almost caught up with the rate from 2019.

 

That's some good intel!

 

You absolutely should. Best case scenario? They bite. Worst case scenario, all the land around gets snatched up, and the value continues climbing until it's worth more than $250k by being the only vacant land available.

We managed to re-fi from 30 to 15 at the dip a couple years ago at 2.5. Our 30yr was in the low-mid 4s. We're hardly paying anything more on half the term. There was like a 72hr or less window to manage, and I was on work travel overseas at the time, but we somehow managed to lock it in, and before we closed rates were already up half a point. Rarely have I ever timed anything financially that well.

It won't happen. Just like gas prices never truly go back down to the original rate after spikes, and grocery prices will never drop again just the same. Once they realize you'll pay it, the new floor is set.

 

Anyone follow Last Line of Defense on YouTube or Instagram? He's a big Toyota fan and puts out all kinds of good content.

I just saw he's doing a 1st gen Sequoia build. I bet it will be sweet.

 

Im looking at that wall I posted earlier and now looking at the wall in evening light, it needs a third coat. The cut in area (brushed on, one coat) is much more uniform in color compared to the rest which was rolled on in two coats. It is stucco that had a deteriorating surface.

 

Fellers, get your headlight alignment tools here.

$22 Performance Tool W924 Long Shaft Screwdriver Set, 3-Piece

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0002KO4R8?ie=UTF8&_encoding=UTF8&th=1

 

Haha, I lurk quiet often but I am not on as much as I used to be. When I come to check the threads its always 100 messages from where I last was and have no idea whats going on.

I usually just text @Darkness if I have a question now also!

 

Really is not ideal right now. Markets red hot in central Texas. I have a lot we planned on building on, but a house close to my current casa came on the market a week or two ago. Had a pool and oversized 3 car garage, and then a detached two car garage that's foam insulated with plumbing and everything ran to it. Also double the size of my acreage with the perfect spot for a steel building. Would have been perfect. I offered way over asking, no contingency on selling my current house, pre approved with promise of full underwriting approval the day after it goes under contract, full waiver of appraisal and proof of funds, 3% earnest money. I went over 10% above asking price, and was not even in second place. Bad thing is building cost is up so much, I couldn't replicate that place for even 20% higher. My other problem is I'm paying 2.5% on my current place, and not willing to build and find myself at 6-7% or higher after the year it takes to complete it.

 

Very good perspective @txagg

I've got this f'd up equity situation in my current company which presumably plays out by 21/2023 and could offset all but maybe 250-300k of mortgage on a second home after a monster down. We could float 5+ % for a couple of years without devastating consequences. But the f'ing buying frenzy just sucks.

Would be more fun to be a shark and come in with cash and just win b/c of the seller experiencing the Gordon Gecko effect.

 

It's crazy! I don't see the fun in a blind auction on a purchase of this size. I'm supposed to name the most ridiculous price I can fathom paying in hopes of getting a deal done? The blessing is we have a nice place as it is. The people getting pounded are first time buyers and young families. My problems are uptown problems.

 

Driving around out here through burleigh and monaville i want an acre bfe in the corner of someones field. Everything is so green. And its grass. Along with my new appreciation of spoons, ive been enjoying walking barefoot through grass. My feet are gonna be so soft when i get home, i bet i’ll wimper walking across the crushed granite.

 

Im using the raybestos. Been fine for a year now.

 

Same. Ive got a set waiting to go on Tundra now.

 

no, says $96 but im pretty sure it was more like $80ish.

 

Only the sales people? I don’t like 60% of my techs. And 90% of the writers. And 100% of the managers.

 

Generally speaking, the amount I 'like' someone at work should have an asterisk indicating a sliding scale.

Oh man, I hope not. Ew.

 

There is no OEM equivalent that I'm aware of. I'm also running the Raybestos replacement but I think I'm going to order a Beck/Arnley unit from Rock Auto soon.